西部陆海新通道建设的区域经济追赶效应——基于省级面板数据的实证研究

The Regional Economic Catch-up Effect of New Western Land-Sea Corridor:an Empirical Study Based on Provincial Panel Data

西部陆海新通道建设在我国区域协调发展中具有重要地位,为西部地区经济高质量发展和融入新发展格局提供有力支撑是其重要目标构成。本文基于1995—2020年省级面板数据的双重差分模型进行实证检验,发现:新通道建设的经济追赶效应具有地区差异性,显著促进了最先参与新通道建设的重庆、广西和贵州的经济追赶速度;基于合成控制法的“反事实”检验显示,新通道建设对贵州经济追赶速度的正向促进作用最大,对重庆的作用次之,对广西的正向促进作用最小;对这三个省份的促进作用均存在显著的时间差异;新通道建设产生的经济追赶效应没有表现出持续性。基于上述分析,本文提出为强化新通道建设的区域协调发展作用,需要进一步释放其长期经济追赶效应并避免陷入“政策陷阱”。

The construction of new western land-sea corridors plays an important role in the coordinated development of China's regions,and one of its important goal is providing strong support for the high-quality economic development of the western region and integration into the new development pattern.Based on provincial panel data from 1995 to 2020,this paper uses the double difference method to empirically test and finds:The economic catch-up effect of the new corridor construction has regional differences,significantly contributing to the economic catch-up speed of Chongqing,Guangxi and Guizhou,which were the first to participate in the new corridor construction;the“counterfactual”test based on the synthetic control method shows that the positive contribution of the new corridor construction to the economic catch-up speed of Guizhou is the largest,followed by Chongqing,and the positive contribution to Guangxi is the smallest,and there are significant time differences in the contribution to these three provinces,but the economic catch-up effect of the new corridor construction does not show persistence.Based on these findings,this paper suggests that in order to strengthen the coordinated regional development role of the new corridor construction,it is necessary to further release its long-term economic catch-up effect and avoid falling into the“policy trap”.