基于不确定性理论视角的农业经营主体研究

Research on agricultural management entities based on the perspective of uncertainty theory

考虑当前不确定的国内国际经济发展环境,在梳理不确定性理论的基础上,以不确定性的视角切入,对农业发展进行定性分析,结合相关统计数据和研究成果,剖析农业及农业经营主体的不确定性。结果表明,新发展条件下农业经营主体面临自然条件、经济运行、科学技术、政策施行、社会治理等5个方面的不确定性,提出要从动力培育、机制设计、制度保障和科技引领4个方面强化农业经营主体面对不确定问题时的应对能力,利用有限认知在不确定的经济社会发展中深化对农业发展的认识、感受模糊发展的魅力。

Considering the current uncertain domestic and international economic development environment,on the basis of combing the uncertainty theory,the paper analyzed the agricultural development qualitatively from the perspective of uncertainty,and studied the uncertainty of agriculture and agricultural operation subject in combination with relevant statistical data and research results.The results showed that under the new development conditions,the agricultural operators were faced with uncertainties in five aspects,natural conditions,economic operation,science and technology,policy implementation and social governance.It was proposed to strengthen the ability of agricultural operators to cope with uncertain problems from four aspects,power cultivation,mechanism design,institutional guarantee,and scientific and technological guidance,and use limited cognition to deepen the understanding of agricultural development in the uncertain economic and social development and feel the charm of fuzzy development.