长江经济带农业全要素生产率时空演变及影响因素研究

Research on the spatio-temporal evolution and influencing factors of agricultural total factor productivity in the Yangtze River Economic Belt

选取长江经济带11个省市2003—2019年的面板数据,基于DEA数据包络模型和Malmquist生产率指数模型,分别从时间和空间角度对长江经济带总体及东、中、西南三大区域农业全要素生产率的演变分布特征进行研究,最后对其影响因素进行了实证分析。结果表明,长江经济带农业全要素生产率在2003—2019年一直处于上升趋势,总体自东、中、西南依次递减,三大区域存在一定的差距,农村经济发展水平、城镇化率对长江经济带农业全要素生产率具有显著的正向影响,对外开放水平、财政支农支出、环境受灾程度对长江经济带农业全要素生产率具有显著的负向影响。

Based on the panel data of 11 provinces and cities in the Yangtze River Economic Belt from 2003 to 2019,the DEA data envelopment model and the Malmquist productivity index model,this paper studied the evolution and distribution characteristics of agricultural total factor productivity in the Yangtze River Economic Belt as a whole and in the eastern,central and southwestern regions from the perspective of time and space,and finally made an empirical analysis of its influencing factors.The results show that the total factor productivity of agriculture in the Yangtze River Economic Belt has been on an upward trend from 2003 to 2019,and it decreases from the east,the middle and the southwest in general.There is a certain gap between the three regions.The level of rural economic development and urbanization rate have a significant positive impact on the total factor productivity of agriculture in the Yangtze River Economic Belt.The level of opening up,fiscal expenditure on agriculture and the degree of environmental disaster have a significant negative impact on the total factor productivity of agriculture in the Yangtze River Economic Belt.