基于面板VAR模型的新疆乡村旅游与新型城镇化互动协调研究

The interactive effect of rural tourism and new urbanization in Xinjiang based on panel VAR model

乡村旅游与新型城镇化建设作为推动农村经济发展的重要增长点,二者的协同作用能够实现多方共赢,推动乡村振兴战略的实施。以新疆15个地州市为研究对象,基于2001—2019年的样本数据构建了面板VAR模型,通过变量的平稳性检验、协整检验、面板误差修正模型、面板VAR估计对乡村旅游与新型城镇化的互动关系进行了实证研究。结果表明,北疆、东疆、南疆3个区域的乡村旅游与新型城镇化之间存在长期协整关系;3个区域的新型城镇化对乡村旅游的推动效应存在明显差异,其中北疆新型城镇化的推动效应最大,其次为东疆,再次为南疆;乡村旅游对新型城镇化产生的效应南疆最明显,其次为北疆,再次为东疆。据此提出将乡村旅游纳入新型城镇化建设的规划之中、注重生态环境保护、多举措助力新型城镇化建设的对策建议。

Rural tourism and new-type urbanization construction are regarded as important growth points to promote rural economic development. The synergistic effect can achieve multi-win results and promote the implementation of the rural revitalization strategy.Based on the sample data of 15 prefectures and cities in Xinjiang from 2001 to 2019,a panel VAR model was constructed to conduct an empirical research on the interaction between rural tourism and new urbanization through the stationary test,co-integration test,panel error correction model and panel VAR estimation of variables. The results showed that,there was a long-term co-integration relationship between rural tourism and new-type urbanization in north Xinjiang,east Xinjiang and south Xinjiang. There were obvious differences in the promoting effect of new-type urbanization on rural tourism in the three regions,and the promoting effect of new-type urbanization in northern Xinjiang was the largest,followed by that in eastern Xinjiang and southern Xinjiang. The effect of rural tourism on new-type urbanization was the most obvious in southern Xinjiang,followed by northern Xinjiang and east Xinjiang.Accordingly,some countermeasures and suggestions were put forward,such as bringing rural tourism into the planning of new-type urbanization construction,paying attention to ecological environmental protection,and taking multiple measures to help new-type urbanization.