广西新型冠状病毒肺炎时空分布及其与百度资讯指数的相关性分析

Spatial and temporal distribution of COVID-19 in Guangxi and its correlation with baidu information index

目的 了解广西新型冠状病毒肺炎(简称:新冠肺炎)早期时空分布特征,并探索其与百度资讯指数的相关性,为疫情研判和防控指导提供科学数据。方法 研究时间段为2019-12-17/2020-03-09(国家派出专家组前往武汉调查不明原因肺炎事件前14 d至广西连续14 d无病例报告),通过广西及各市卫生健康委员会网站收集每日报告病例资料,以“肺炎”、“流感”等7个与新冠肺炎相关的关键词收集百度资讯指数,进行时间序列分析和相关性分析。结果 广西新冠肺炎流行第一阶段以输入性病例及有省外旅居史的病例为主,分别占72.07%和15.32%,主要分布在北海市、桂林市、南宁市、柳州市;第二阶段本土病例占51.77%,主要分布在南宁市、北海市、河池市和柳州市。空间自相关分析结果显示病例无空间聚集性。报告病例数与各关键词的百度资讯指数均呈中度或高度相关(rs在0.50~0.80之间)。结论 广西新冠肺炎由早期输入性为主逐步转向本地感染,但得到及时有效控制;需重点关注主要旅游城市(桂林市、北海市)和交通枢纽(南宁市、柳州市)疫情,“肺炎”、“冠状病毒”和“口罩”的百度资讯指数可应用于疫情流行趋势的研判,但在实际应用中应根据情况动态调整研判指标。

Objectives To analyze the spatial and temporal distribution of coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19) in the early phase of epidemic in Guangxi,and to explore its correlation with Baidu Information Index,so that to provide scientific data for epidemic analysis and prevention and control guidance.Methods The study period was from December 17,2019 to March 9,2020(from 14 days before the experts who were sent by govenment to investigate of the unknown pneumonia event in Wuhan to no new COVID-19 case reported in Guangxi for 14 consecutive days).The daily data of reported cases were collected from the websites of Health Commissions in Guangxi and other cities.The Baidu Information Index of 7 COVID-19 related keywords including“pneumonia” and “influenza” etc.were collected.Time series and correlation analysis were conducted.Results The first phase of epidemic in Guangxi was dominated by imported cases and cases with travel history outside the Guangxi,which accounting for 72.07% and 15.32%,respectively,most of the cases were concentrated in Beihai city,Guilin city,Nanning city and Liuzhou city.In the second phase,the local cases accounted for 51.77% of total,most of the cases were concentrated in Nanning city,Beihai city,Hechi city and Liuzhou city.No spatial cluster was found in the spatial auto-correlation analysis.The relationship of the number of cases and the Baidu Information Index of each keyword was moderate or high(rs:0.50~0.80).Conclusions The early epidemic phase of COVID-19 in Guangxi was dominated by imported cases while it gradually shifted into native infection.However,the epidemic in Guangxi was controlled timely and effectively.It should be focused on the areas of tourist cities(Guilin city,Beihai city)and transportation hubs(Nanning city,Liuzhou city).The Baidu Information Index of“pneumonia”,“coronavirus”and“mask”can be used to study and judge the epidemic trends,but the evaluation index should be adjusted dynamically according to the real situation.