光伏产业政策效力和效果评估——基于中国2010-2020年政策文本的量化分析

Evaluation on the Policy Efficacy and Effect of Photovoltaic Industry——Quantitative Analysis of China′s Policy Texts from 2010 to 2020

收集了2010-2020年间颁布的光伏产业政策文件,建立量化评估模型,测算出各年度政策效力,评估得出了不同政策工具的实施效果。结果表明:光伏产业政策数量与政策整体效力演变趋势基本一致但波动较大,而年均效力波动偏小;政策目标和政策措施量化得分较高,但政策力度得分偏低,从而导致政策年均效力难以提升;三类政策都存在着明显的滞后效应,与环境型政策相比,供给型和需求型政策实施效果欠佳,未来需要在政策的制定过程中进一步加以完善。

This paper collects the photovoltaic industry policy documents promulgated from 2010 to 2020,and establishes a quantitative evaluation model, calculates the policy effectiveness in each year, and evaluates the implementation effect of different policy tools.Research results show that the number of photovoltaic industry policies is basically the same as the overall policy effectiveness evolution trend, but fluctuates greatly, while the average annual effectiveness fluctuates slightly.Policy objectives and policy measures have higher quantitative scores, but policy strength scores are low, which leads to policy years.It is difficult to improve the average effectiveness, all three types of policies have significant lag effects.Compared with environmental policies, supply-based and demand-based policies have poor implementation effects and need to be further improving in the future policy formulation process.