抗疫财政政策跨周期经济影响的研究——基于一般均衡模型的分析

Research on the Cross-Cycle Economic Impact of Anti-epidemic Fiscal Policies——Analysis based on the general equilibrium model

财政政策作为宏观调控的主要手段,对于经济总量平衡、结构优化、内外均衡等均具有重要影响。本文基于一般均衡视角,通过构建包含金融模块的递归动态可计算一般均衡模型,重点考察了抗疫财政政策对于经济增长、产业发展、社会需求等领域的跨周期影响效果。结果表明:抗疫财政政策可有效对冲新冠疫情的不利影响,且具备鲜明的跨周期特征,政策对于我国经济的提振效果不仅局限于疫情发生当年,其正面影响可持续至“十四五”期末。政策对于不同产业的影响存在较大差异,其中,对于第二产业的提振效果较为突出,第三产业整体偏弱。政策对于投资领域的提振效果明显强于消费领域,且“十四五”时期消费、投资与仅考虑新冠疫情冲击时的增速偏差分别呈现“倒U型”和“L型”的变化趋势。

As the key policy instruments of macro-control, fiscal policy has important impacts on the balance of economic aggregates, structural optimization, and internal and external balance. Based on the perspective of general equilibrium, this paper focuses on the cross-cycle impact of anti-epidemic fiscal policies on economic growth, industrial development, and social demand by constructing a recursive dynamic computable general equilibrium model including financial modules. The results show that the anti-epidemic fiscal policy can effectively hedge the adverse impact of COVID-19 epidemic, and has distinct cross-cycle characteristics. The boosting effect of the policy on China’s economy is not limited to the year of COVID-19epidemic, and its positive impact can last until the end of the "14th Five-Year Plan" period. The impact of policies on different industries is quite different, among which the boosting effect on the secondary industry is more prominent, while the tertiary industry is weak as a whole. The boosting effect of the policy on the investment field is obviously stronger than that in the consumption field, and the deviation of the growth rate between introducing policy and only considering the impact of COVID-19 epidemic of consumption and investment during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period shows an "inverted U" and "L" shaped trend respectively.