汇率与产品价格:基于全球价值链视角

Exchange Rate and the Price: From the Perspective of Global Value Chains

汇率变动对产品价格的影响关系着企业产品出口竞争力和国家宏观经济政策。本文基于全球价值链视角,分析汇率对出口产品价格的不完全传递以及对全球最终产品价格的影响:(1)证明汇率变动对出口产品价格不完全传递具有必然性。当不存在传递阻滞等因素时,汇率对出口价格的传递率等于出口产品国内附加值率;(2)结合贸易增加值分解方法,推导出汇率变动导致的最终产品价格变动率;(3)结合模型和世界投入产出表分析汇率升值对全球各国各行业价格的影响,发现人民币升值使中国国内价格水平下跌,且总体来看对中国价格整体水平影响有限;美元升值有助于美国抑制国内通货膨胀,对美国石油产品、汽车、基本金属等行业具有较明显的价格抑制作用,但美元升值将向与其存在密切联系的国家输出通货膨胀,对墨西哥、印度、加拿大等国通货膨胀率具有较明显助推作用。

This paper analyzes the incomplete pass-through effect of exchange rate to export price and its influence on final product price from the perspective of global value chains.(1) We prove the inevitability of the incomplete exchange rate pass-through effect. The exchange rate pass-through rate to the export price is equal to domestic value-added rate of export goods;(2) We derive the pass-through model of exchange rate to final product price;(3) Combining the model and the world input-output table, we measure the impact of appreciation on the price of sector. The appreciation of RMB increases domestic final product price(priced in foreign currency) by almost the same magnitude as the appreciation of RMB. In other words, the appreciation of RMB has little impact on domestic price level priced in RMB. The appreciation of the dollar helps to curb domestic inflation in the U.S., but it will drive up inflation rates in Mexico, India and Canada.