摘要
如何提升货币政策工具与汇率目标的有效配合实现外部均衡,是新时期我国扩大对外开放进程中亟待厘清的重要问题。本文基于2006年11月至2021年6月的月度频次数据,通过构建时变参数随机波动率向量自回归模型进行时变分析。研究表明:在国际收支总量渠道上,数量型货币政策和爬行钉住汇率制度两者配合更能助推国际收支趋于平衡状态;在国际收支结构渠道上,两种政策目标配合对产品市场具有显著且高度稳定的影响,但对金融市场则表现出波动性。本文主要结论有益于深化对政策搭配经济规律的理解,同时可为未来促进外部均衡提供新的研究视角。
How to improve the effective coordination of China’s expansion and exchange rate policy to achieve external equilibrium is an important issue that needs to be clarified urgently in the process of my country’s expansion of opening up in the new era. Based on the monthly frequency data from November 2006 to June 2021, this paper conducts time-varying analysis by constructing a time-varying parameter stochastic volatility vector autoregression(TVP-VAR) model. The research shows that: in the channel of the total amount of the balance of payments, the combination of the quantitative monetary policy and the crawling peg exchange rate system can better promote the balance of payments;Product markets have significant and highly stable effects, but exhibit volatility on financial markets. The main conclusions of this paper are beneficial to deepen the understanding of the economic laws of policy matching, and at the same time provide a new research perspective for promoting external equilibrium in the future.
出处
《价格理论与实践》
北大核心
2022年第4期110-114,共5页
Price:Theory & Practice
基金
国家自然科学基金项目“宏观审慎政策与货币政策协同向实效应研究”(71863031)
新疆维吾尔自治区研究生科研创新计划“数字金融发展与货币政策渠道效应”(XJ2020G092)
新疆维吾尔自治区普通高等学校人文社会科学重点研究基地资助项目“丝绸之路经济带大数据金融体系建设与应用研究”(XJEDU2017RS056)。
