城市人口时空分布估计研究进展

Research progress on spatio-temporal distribution estimation of urban population

城市人口是构成城市的社会主体,是城市发展中最为活跃的因素。城市人口时空分布是城市管理需要掌握的重要信息。正确、精细化的城市人口分布数据对于城市运行与规划、城市经济发展和人民生活具有极为重要的意义,因此城市人口时空分布估计是城市地理学需要解决和研究的热点问题之一。本文以城市人口时空分布估计的关键点为核心,从以下几个方面展开综述:①空间分布单元划分方法,即城市人口分布的空间划分方式;②主要的模型和方法,从模型思想发展过程和估计对象的角度总结了6类方法并进行详细阐述;③估计结果在城市发展中的主要应用。在此基础上,本文指出了目前人口时空分布研究在空间单元构建、建模数据、建模思想和结果验证上存在的问题,同时探讨了未来的研究方向。

The urban population is the social subject of the city and the most active factor in urban development.The urban management needs to understand the distribution of urban population in different areas of the city at different time points,which is collectively known as the spatio-temporal distribution of urban population.Accurate and refined urban population distribution data is of great significance to urban management and planning,urban economic development and people s life.Therefore,the estimation of urban population spatio-temporal distribution is one of the hot issues in urban geography.This paper reviews from the following key aspects:①The construction method of spatial distribution units;②The main models or methods are summarized and described in detail from the perspective of the development process of model ideas and estimation objects;③The main application of estimation results in urban development.On this basis,this paper points out the existing problems in the construction of spatial units,modeling data,modeling ideas and results verification in the current research on the spatio-temporal distribution of population,and discusses future research directions.