美国对中国科技“脱钩”的战略动机及政策措施

Strategic Motivation and Policy Measures of U.S. Technology Decoupling from China

高科技已成为全球经济的基础,并正在驱动创新和经济增长。在数字时代,取得新兴技术领域的领导地位,可获得巨大的利润、全球市场份额和制定标准的机会。全球科技领导地位受到各国的高度重视,对这一地位争夺也变得尤为激烈。高科技产业对跨境贸易的依赖使其与外贸密切关联,并对脱钩极度敏感。科技战正在成为新的贸易战。美国认为,技术已经成为国家间竞争的关键领域,需要得到严密保护,并要与国家战略更紧密地结合在一起。特朗普政府是对中国实行科技脱钩的始作俑者,拜登政府延续了其前任的政策和措施。美国决策者利用了既有的和新通过的法律、规则以及总统权力来对中国实行出口管制、投资限制等“压制性”脱钩措施,到拜登时期又采用了更多的“自强性”脱钩措施,其目的是培育美国自身的技术能力,并以民主价值观的名义联合盟友和伙伴国加强对中国的科技封锁,借以维护美国的科技领导地位。已有迹象表明,美国的供应链正在偏离中国,在计算机和电子行业尤为明显。但是,科技脱钩已带来一系列负面效果,并在美国国内引起广泛争论。如果美国半导体产业的脱钩政策继续下去,它将会失去广大的中国市场,造成其海外销售额、研发支出和投资的收缩,最终可能使美国失去其全球半导体产业领导者的地位。

High-tech has become the foundation of the global economy and is driving innovation and economic growth. In the digital age, leadership in emerging technologies provide huge profits, global market share and standards-setting opportunities. Global leadership in technology is highly valued by all states, and the competition for the leadership has become particularly intense. The high-tech industry’s dependence on cross-border trade makes it closely linked to foreign trade and extremely sensitive to decoupling. The war on technology is becoming the new trade war. The United States realizes that technology has become a key area of competition between states, and needs to be well protected and more closely integrated with the national strategy. The Trump administration was the pioneer of the technological decoupling with China, and the Biden administration continues the policies and measures of its predecessor. During the Trump era, policymakers in the administration and Congress takes advantage of the existing and new laws and regulations as well as the presidential power to implement “resisting” measures, such as export controls and investment restrictions to China. More “self-improving” measures have been adopted the Biden Administration, aiming at nurturing American own technology capacity, and uniting allies or partners to strengthen the technology blockade to China in the name of democratic values. There are already signs that U.S. supply chains are drifting away from China, particularly in the computer and electronics industries. However, technological decoupling has brought about a series of negative effects, and aroused widespread debate in the United States. If the U. S. decoupling policy in the semiconductor industry continues, it will lose the vast Chinese market, resulting in the contraction of its overseas sales, and spending and investment on R&D.Eventually, the U. S. might lose its global leadership of the semiconductor industry.