基于关联规则的船员不安全行为发展路径分析

Analysis on development paths of crew unsafe behaviors based on association rules

为研究船员不安全行为间的不确定性关联特征,运用关联规则对船员的不安全行为进行支持度和关联度评估。考虑到船员不安全行为表现的复杂性和不确定性,对船舶航行事故中船员的不安全行为进行辨识,并提出船员不安全行为的基本组成和关联因素。引入频繁模式增长(frequent pattern growth,FP-growth)算法,分析船员的不安全行为关联规则。结合某港口水域安全事故数据,通过置信度和支持度分析,揭示船员不安全行为致因事故路径。应用结果表明,船员不安全行为导致事故发生的主要路径为:瞭望疏忽→安全航速失误→危险判断过失→避让行动过失→应急操作不当。自然环境和交通密度对船员不安全行为的产生具有较强的关联性。

In order to study the uncertain association characteristics between crew unsafe behaviors,the association rules are used to evaluate the support and association of crew unsafe behaviors.Taking into account the complexity and uncertainty of crew unsafe behaviors,the crew unsafe behaviors in the ship navigation accidents are identified,and the basic composition and the related factors of crew unsafe behaviors are proposed.The frequent pattern growth(FP-growth)algorithm is introduced to analyze the association rules of crew unsafe behaviors.Combined with the safety accident data in the waters of a port,through the confidence and support analysis,it reveals the accident paths caused by crew unsafe behaviors.The application results show that,the main path of accidents caused by crew unsafe behaviors are as follows:neglect of lookout→error of safe speed→error of hazard judgment→improper avoidance action→improper emergency operation.The natural environment and the traffic density are of strong association to crew unsafe behaviors.