气候变化下南疆主要河流径流变化及水资源风险

Runoff Variation and Water Resources Risks in the Major Rivers of Southern Xinjiang due to Climate Change

基于1960年以来的气象和径流实测资料,利用数理统计方法和水量平衡模型,定量分析了南疆五大主要河流——阿克苏河、渭干河、叶尔羌河、和田河以及克里雅河的径流变化趋势,流域内气候变化趋势,流域内冰川融水对径流的贡献以及对气候变化的响应.结果表明:(1)在0.01显著性水平下,五大流域内气温均呈显著性上升趋势,位于盆地北缘的流域内降水量呈显著上升趋势;(2)五大河流的径流量均呈现显著增加趋势,且明显增加的年份与气温突变的时间基本吻合,稍有滞后;(3)冰川融水量随着气温的上升呈增加趋势,且在降水极端少的干旱年份,冰川融水径流量在总径流量中的占比远高于流域平均水平,分别可达总径流量的67.98%、38.81%、70.48%、72.07%、78.92%.

Based on the observed data of weather and runoff since 1960,the variation trend of climate and runoff, as the contribution of glacier meltwater runoff to the surface runoff and the response rule to the climate change, were analyzed quantitatively in the five major rivers-Aksu River, Weigan River, Yarkant River, Hotan River and Kriya River, by using the mathematical statistics method and the water balance model.The results show that:(1)Under the significance level at 0.01,the precipitation in the northern basin, as the temperature in all five basins showed a significant rising trend.(2)The surface runoff of the five major rivers showed a significant rising trend, which time was consistent with the time of abrupt temperature change, but lagged behind it slightly.(3)Glacier meltwater runoff increased with the rising temperature, and in drought years with little precipitation, it was much higher than the average level of the five basins, with the proportion 67.98%,38.81%,70.48%,72.07% and 78.92% respectively.