决策主体、决策制度与规划质量:一项准自然实验研究

Decision Makers,Policy-making Systems and Planning Quality:A Quasi-natural Experimental Study

本文基于共识型决策理论和制度理论构建五年规划决策理论模型并通过是否建立规划决策制度这一准自然实验,利用全国省市县217份官员调研数据验证模型。研究发现,与没有建立规划决策制度相反,建立规划决策制度后,出现以下变化:决策者、起草者、征询者参与情况以及规划质量均显著改善及提升,起草者对规划质量的正向影响超过决策者对规划质量的正向影响,征询者对规划质量产生正向影响;决策者开展专题调研对规划质量产生正向影响;起草者吸收各方面意见对规划质量产生正向影响;征求专家学者、人大代表及政协委员的意见对规划质量产生正向影响。据此,本文认为规划决策制度“由外到内”依次对征询者、起草者、决策者产生影响,实现民主科学决策,提升规划质量。研究结论为加快出台发展规划法,以法治化决策保障和促进民主化科学化决策。

Based on consensus decision-making theory and institutional theory,a theoretical model of five-year planning decision-making is constructed.Through the quasi-natural experiment of whether to establish a planning decision-making system,the model is verified by using the survey data of 217 officials in provinces,cities and counties across the country.The study finds that,in contrast to the absence of a planning decision-making system,the following changes occurred after the establishment of a planning decision-making system:the participation of decision-makers,drafters,consultants and planning quality were significantly improved,and the positive impact of drafters on planning quality was higher than that of decision-makers.The consultants have a positive impact on the planning quality;the number of special investigations carried out by the decision makers has a positive impact on the planning quality;the drafters absorb opinions from various aspects and have a positive impact on the planning quality;and the experts,scholars,NPC deputies and CPPCC members are consulted to have a positive impact on the quality of planning.Accordingly,it is concluded that the planning decision-making system “from the outside to the inside” has an impact on the consultants,drafters,and decision-makers in turn,realizes democratic and scientific decision-making,and improves the quality of planning.