考虑岩溶地貌影响的天一水库入库洪水模拟方法研究

Research on Simulation Method for Incoming Flood of Tianyi Reservoir Considering the Influence of Karst Geomorphology

喀斯特地区岩溶的存在导致径流形成过程更加复杂,且水利工程的建设加剧了流域产汇流过程的复杂性和不确定性。基于此考虑上游喀斯特地貌影响,应用面向喀斯特地貌的新安江模型,建立了半分布式的南盘江天一水库入库洪水模拟模型。结果表明:①所建立的喀斯特新安江模型较好地模拟了天一水库入库洪水过程,各分区模拟精度指标高于传统新安江模型;②无论是率定期还是检验期,基于所建立模型的天一入库洪水过程串联模拟的纳什效率系数(NSE)均大于0.86,水量误差控制在12%以内,说明所建立的模型模拟结果较好;③对天一水库2018—2020年6场典型入库洪水进行预报精度评价,结果表明所建立分区预报方案达到规范精度要求。因而研究结果可以为天一水库上游喀斯特地区的水文模拟提供参考。

The karst in karst areas leads to a more complex runoff formation process,and the construction of water conservancy projects has aggravated the complexity and uncertainty of the production and confluence process in the basin.On this basis,a semi-distributed incoming flood simulation model of Tianyi Reservoir in the Nanpanjiang River was built by the Xin anjiang model for karst geomorphology,considering the influence of upstream karst geomorphology.The results reveal that:①the built Xin anjiang model for karst geomorphology can well simulate the incoming flood process of Tianyi Reservoir,and the simulation accuracy index of each zone is greater than that of the traditional Xin anjiang model;②the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency(NSE)coefficient in the series incoming flood simulation of Tianyi Reservior based on the model constructed in this paper is greater than 0.86 during both the calibration period and the validation period,and the volume error is within 12%,which indicates that the simulation results of the constructed model are good;③the forecast accuracy is evaluated for six typical incoming floods of Tianyi Reservoir from 2018 to 2020,and the evaluation suggests that the built zonal forecast scheme meets the specification accuracy requirements.Thus,the results of the study can provide a reference for hydrological simulation in the upstream karst area of Tianyi Reservoir.