摘要
新能源电力设备运行环境多变、系统结构复杂,导致新能源电力系统安全问题日益突出。该文提出了一种基于情景构建与推演的电力设备运行风险评估方法。首先,分析了新能源电力系统运行过程中存在的安全风险问题;其次,构建了新能源电力设备运行风险评估模型;最后综合采用交叉影响分析法和解释结构模型法推演了新能源电力设备的不安全状态对电力系统故障的影响程度,并提出了相应的预防和改进措施。研究结果表明:该方法评估电力设备故障对电力系统运行造成的风险程度合理可行,对电力系统应急管理决策具有重要的指导意义。
New energy power equipment operating environments are very complex and can change over time which can lead to system failures.This paper presents a risk assessment method for power equipment operations based on scenario constructions and deductions.The operating risks are assessed to develop risk assessment models for the power systems.Then,the influence of these unsafe power system operating conditions on the entire system are deduced using the cross impact analysis method and the interpretive structure model method to identify prevention and control measures.The results show that this method can effectively evaluate the risks caused by power equipment faults in power system operations to guide power system emergency management decisionmaking.
作者
任建强
王璐阳
吴家浩
倪顺江
翁文国
REN Jianqiang;WANG Luyang;WU Jiahao;NI Shunjiang;WENG Wenguo(Institute of Public Safety Research,Department of Engineering Physics,Tsinghua University,Beijing 100084,China;Beijing Key Laboratory of City Integrated Emergency Response Science,Beijing 100084,China)
出处
《清华大学学报（自然科学版）》
EI
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2022年第10期1571-1578,共8页
Journal of Tsinghua University(Science and Technology)
基金
国家电网有限公司科技项目(52020119000L)。
关键词
电力设备
情景构建
情景推演
交叉影响分析
解释结构模型
power equipment
scenario construction
scenario deduction
cross influence analysis
interpretive structural model
