黄河流域旅游城镇化时空演变特征及其影响因素研究

Research on Spatial-temporal Evolutionary Characteristics and Influencing Factors in Tourism Urbanization of the Yellow River Basin

城市是黄河流域高质量发展的核心载体,科学分析黄河流域旅游城镇化水平的时空演变特征可为助力黄河流域实现高质量发展提供科学参考。基于空间自相关、马尔可夫链、空间马尔可夫链和地理加权回归等方法,对2005~2018年黄河流域各地市旅游城镇化水平的时空演变特征及其影响因素的异质性进行剖析。结果表明:(1)黄河流域旅游城镇化水平稳步提升,但区域空间分异特征显著,其中陕西省能较好地保持在领先地位,山西省则极具旅游城镇化建设潜力,而内蒙古和宁夏两省区的旅游城镇化特征则不够显著;(2)全局Moran’s I指数均为正值,即黄河流域旅游城镇化水平在空间分布上呈显著的正相关性,并展现出空间集聚特性,近邻效应突出;(3)黄河流域旅游城镇化水平空间溢出效应显著,“高高集聚、高带动低”的空间俱乐部收敛现象较为突出,不同类型城市转移存在显著的时空惯性与路径依赖;(4)产业结构水平、人均消费水平、旅游产业集聚程度是影响黄河流域旅游城镇化发展的主要因素且各影响因素呈现出显著的时空异质性特征。

Cities are the core carrier of the high-quality development of the Yellow River Basin.Scientific analysis of the temporal-spatial changes of tourism urbanization level in the Yellow River Basin can provide a scientific reference for the realization of the high-quality development in the Yellow River Basin.Based on methodologies such as spatial autocorrelation,Markov-chain,spatial Markov-chain and geographical weighted regression,this paper analyzes the spatial-temporal evolutionary characteristics and heterogeneity of influencing factors in tourism urbanization level of cities in the Yellow River Basin during 2005 to 2018.The results show that:(1)The level of tourism urbanization has steadily increased in the Yellow River Basin,but the characteristic of regional spatial differentiation is significant,among which,Shaanxi Province can maintain its leading position,Shanxi Province has great potential for tourism urbanization,but the characteristic of tourism urbanization in Inner Mongolia and Ningxia provinces is not significant enough.(2)The overall Moran’s I index is positive,that is,the level of tourism urbanization in the Yellow River Basin has a significant positive correlation in spatial distribution,and shows the characteristic of spatial agglomeration,with prominent neighborhood effects.(3) The horizontal spatial spillover effect of tourism urbanization level in those regions is significant.The convergence of spatial clubs which are “the high clustering,the high drives the low” is relatively prominent.There are significant spatial-temporal inertia and path dependence in different types of cities transferring.(4) Industrial structural level,per capita consumption level and degree of tourism industry agglomeration are the primary factors driving the development of tourism urbanization level,and each presents significant spatial-temporal heterogeneity.