我国先进制造技术追赶中子领域与周期选择

Selection of sub-technology field and technology cycle stage in technology catches up for China’s advanced manufacturing technology(AMT)

先进制造技术面向世界前沿追赶与收敛承载着我国科技自强自立重大期待。本文应用logistic模型对先进制造技术子领域技术生命周期进行识别,应用显性技术优势指数(RTA)对主要工业国家在不同技术子领域不同发展阶段技术优势分析测算,在此基础上选择我国先进制造技术追赶的子领域并建立其在不同技术周期阶段进行追赶的成本收益模型,通过对模型中技术价值、技术距离、产品与技术扩散速度赋值进行仿真分析。得到的结论有,第一,先进制造技术在周期化演进过程中呈现出子领域非均衡、周期阶段非同步发展的特点,为后发经济体技术追赶提供了重要的机会窗口;第二,从显性技术优势指数及技术生命周期看,我国在再制造技术、仿生制造技术、工业机器人等子领域中技术追赶机会窗口更显著;第三,即使对于存在技术追赶机会窗口的领域,在不同技术周期阶段发起追赶,追赶总收益存在显著差异。这些结论对我国先进制造技术识别追赶领域,制定追赶战略有着重要启示意义。

Catch-up with the world frontier of advanced manufacturing technology(AMT) carries the great vision of realizing scientific and technological self-reliance for China. This paper apple the logistic model to identify the technology life cycle of the sub field of advanced manufacturing technology, and Revealed Technological Advantage Index(RTA) applied to analyze the technical advantages of major industrialized countries in different cycle stages of different technology sub fields. Then this paper established the cost-benefit model of catch-up in different technology cycle stages in China’s advanced manufacturing technology catch-up, and give a simulation analysis based on assignment of technology value, technology distance, product and technology diffusion speed. The result shows, first, in the process of evolution, advanced manufacturing technology presents the characteristics of unbalanced sub fields and asynchronous development in periodic stages, which provides an important opportunity window for the technology catch-up for developing economies;Second, from the perspective of RTA and technology life cycle, China’s opportunity window of technology catch-up is more significant in some sub fields-such as remanufacturing technology, bionic manufacturing technology and industrial robot than in others;Third, even for the fields with technology catch-up opportunity window, there is a significant difference in the total income of catch-up by initiating in different technology cycle stages. These conclusions have important enlightenment significance for China’s AMT to identify the catch-up field and formulate the catch-up strategy.