长江经济带包容性绿色增长时空格局演变及影响因素研究

A Study on the Spatial-Temporal Pattern Evolution and Influencing Factors of Inclusive Green Growth in the Yangtze River Economic Belt

长江经济带作为国家发展重大战略区域,其包容性绿色增长的实现对深入推进高质量发展进程具有重要意义。基于2004—2018年长江经济带110个城市的面板数据,利用Super-EBM模型、GML指数测度包容性绿色增长水平并揭示其时空格局演变特征;更进一步,采用空间面板分位数模型识别影响因素。结果表明:长江经济带包容性绿色增长水平年均增长0.22%,先后经历了稳步提升、“V”型波动和快速增长三个阶段;长江经济带包容性绿色增长空间集聚性显著,全局自相关中Moran’s I均大于0.162,局部自相关分析中长三角城市群“高高”型集聚特征明显;经济发展、科技投入与财政投入对包容性绿色增长皆有正向驱动作用,而产业结构、人口分布与能源消耗在不同增长水平下对包容性绿色增长影响方向迥异。

As a major national development strategy area, the realization of inclusive green growth in the Yangtze River Economic Belt is of great significance for further promoting the process of high-quality development. Based on the panel data of 110cities in the Yangtze River Economic Belt from 2004 to 2018, the level of inclusive green growth were measured and its feature about spatial-temporal pattern evolution were revealed using Super-EBM model and GML index. Furthermore,the influencing factors of the inclusive green growth were identified by a spatial panel quantile model. The results show that the level of inclusive green growth in the Yangtze River Economic Belt has an average annual growth rate of 0.22% and successively experiences three stages,namely steady ascension, “ V”-shaped fluctuation and rapid growth. The spatial clustering about inclusive green growth in the Yangtze River Economic Belt is significant. Global Moran’s I has exceeded 0.162, H-H agglomeration feature is evident in Local spatial autocorrelation analysis, especially in the regions of Yangtze River Delta Urban Agglomerations. Economic development,scientific and technological investment, and financial investment all have a positive driving effect on the inclusive green growth.Meanwhile, industrial structure, population distribution and energy consumption have different influencing directions at different levels of growth.