黄河流域九省区“双碳”目标的实现路径研究

The Approach to Achieving the“Double Carbon”Goal in Nine Provinces and Regions in the Yellow River Basin

黄河流域作为中国重要的生态屏障和经济带,其“双碳”目标的实现对于中国的绿色低碳发展意义重大。通过对黄河流域九省区1997—2019年的经济和碳排放状况、产业结构和能源结构特征、拐点和脱钩情况以及碳排放的驱动因素进行分析,探索符合黄河流域地区发展情况的“双碳”目标实现路径。研究发现:(1)黄河流域整体碳排放强度是全国的1.6倍,其中宁夏、内蒙古和山西是全国碳排放强度最高的3个省区;(2)各省区工业碳排放的份额占比最大,其中宁夏、内蒙古和山西的工业碳排放份额均在90%以上;(3)流域内不同省区的碳排放阶段已出现分化,其中四川与河南基本实现碳达峰,且处于经济发展的强脱钩状态;(4)各省区产业结构的低碳化演进趋势明显,宁夏与内蒙古的能源强度效应在研究期内出现反弹,但两省区能够通过能源结构优化快速步入经济的低碳发展阶段。为此,要重视黄河流域各省区“双碳”目标实现路径的差异性,注重各省区低碳发展的整体性与协同性,推动黄河流域“双碳”路径规划与国家“双碳”目标深入融合,从而构建黄河流域低碳高质量发展的新格局。

The Yellow River Basin is an important ecological barrier and economic belt in China,and its achievement of the“double carbon”goal is of great significance to China’s green and low-carbon development.This paper analyzes the economic and carbon emission status,industrial structure and energy structure characteristics,the turning point,decoupling and driving factors of the carbon emission in nine provinces and regions in the Yellow River Basin from 1997 to 2019,to explore the realization path of“double carbon”goal suitable for the development of the Yellow River Basin.It is found that the carbon emission intensity of the Yellow River Basin is 1.6 times that of the whole country,among which Ningxia,Inner Mongolia and Shanxi are the three provinces with the highest carbon emission intensity in China.The share of industrial carbon emissions in the nine provinces and regions is the largest,and the share is more than 90% in Ningxia,Inner Mongolia and Shanxi.The nine provinces and regions are in different stages of carbon emission,among which Sichuan and Henan have reached the peak,and they are in a strong decoupling trend of economic development.The industrial structure in each province has obvious trend to low-carbon development,and the energy intensity effect of Ningxia and Inner Mongolia rebounded during the study period,but the two provinces can enter the low-carbon development path through optimizing their energy structure.Therefore,we should clarify the differences of the realization path of the“double carbon”goal in each province,pay attention to their integrity and synergy of low-carbon development,and integrate the“double carbon”path planning of the Yellow River Basin with the national“double carbon”goal,so as to build a new development pattern of low-carbon and high-quality development.