“一带一路”沿线国家FDI的流入加剧了碳排放吗?——基于PSTR模型的经验证据

Does the FDI Inflows in Countries along“the Belt and Road”Aggravate Carbon Emissions?An Empirical Evidence Based on the PSTR Model

全球“碳中和”目标背景下,研究经济快速发展中FDI的环境效应具有重要意义。采用面板平滑过渡回归(PSTR)模型,对2003—2014年62个“一带一路”沿线国家FDI对碳排放的非线性影响进行研究。研究发现,总体上“一带一路”沿线国家FDI的流入加剧了碳排放,不利于环境治理。而PSTR模型的非线性影响估计结果显示,“一带一路”沿线国家FDI对碳排放的促进作用会随着国家经济发展逐渐成熟而有所放缓,并且人均GDP进入高门槛区间后,FDI对碳排放的促进作用显著减弱,弹性系数与经济水平呈现倒S型变化。因此,考虑经济发展的差异,“一带一路”沿线国家应专门制定针对吸引外资发展的政策,以应对其对环境的负面影响,更好地推进全球化的可持续发展与“一带一路”高质量发展。

Under the background of the global“carbon neutral”goal,it is of great significance to study the environmental effect of FDI in rapid economic development.This paper uses the panel smooth transition regression(PSTR)model to study the nonlinear effects of FDI on carbon emissions in 62 countries along the Belt and Road from 2003 to 2014.The study found that FDI inflow in countries along the Belt and Road increased carbon emissions,which was not conducive to environmental governance.The non-linear impact estimation results of the PSTR model show that the promoting effect of FDI on carbon emissions in countries along the Belt and Road will slow down with the gradual maturity of national economic development.After per capita GDP enters the high threshold range,the promoting effect of FDI on carbon emissions is significantly weakened,and the elasticity coefficient and economic level show an inverted S-shaped change.Therefore,considering the differences in economic development,countries along the Belt and Road should specifically formulate policies for the development of attracting foreign investment to cope with its negative impact on the environment and better promote the sustainable development of globalization and the high-quality development of the Belt and Road.