摘要
Based on the multi-regional input-output model and WIOD data in 2014,this paper quantitatively estimates the impact of manufacturing transfer on China’s GDP and industrial structure from three technological categories of manufacturing,two stages and three channels.This paper finds that:(1)China’s exports to the United States are mainly high-tech products,and high-tech manufacturing is greatly constrained by the United States,which requires close attention.(2)Manufacturing transfer has an impact through three channels,i.e.direct effect,correlation effect and spillover effect.Direct effect is the main channel of infl uence in the short term,but in the long term,spillover effect is the main factor causing inter-sector differences.(3)In the short run,the transfer of low-tech manufacturing has the greatest impact on China’s GDP,while in the long run,the transfer of medium-and high-tech manufacturing will exert much stronger impact than that of low-tech manufacturing,and low-tech manufacturing is less helpful for the upgrading of China’s industrial structure.In order to mitigate the impact of industrial transfer,this paper suggests that differentiated policies be adopted for different technological categories of manufacturing,with special focus on strengthening the dominance and irreplaceability of medium-and high-tech manufacturing in the industrial chain in China.
