贸易政策不确定性如何影响出口二元边际?--理论机制与经验证据

How Does Trade Policy Uncertainty Affect Export Dual Margins?--Theoretical Mechanism and Empirical Evidence

为考察贸易政策不确定性对出口二元边际的影响,将出口二元边际嵌入异质性企业贸易模型进行理论分析,并使用2002-2013年中国出口企业的微观数据对理论假说进行检验。研究发现:贸易政策不确定性的下降会促进企业的出口总量和二元边际提升;贸易政策不确定性的下降对一般贸易企业、民营企业、高生产率企业和高技术行业的出口总量和二元边际的提升效应强于加工贸易企业、非民营企业、低生产率企业和中低技术行业;在低市场准入成本和贸易自由化的基础上降低贸易政策不确定性,将对出口产生更为明显的促进效应。

In order to study the impact of trade policy uncertainty on export dual margins,we incorporate export dual margins into the heterogeneous firm trade model to carry out a theoretical analysis,and then use the micro-data of Chinese export enterprises from 2002 to 2013 to test the theoretical hypotheses.We find:A decrease in trade policy uncertainty will promote the total export volume and the dual margins of enterprises;a decrease in trade policy uncertainty has a stronger promoting effect on the total export volume and the dual margins of general trade enterprises,private enterprises,high-productivity enterprises and high-tech industries than processing trade enterprises,non-private enterprises,low-productivity enterprises and medium and low technology industries;reducing trade policy uncertainty on the basis of low market entry cost and trade liberalization will have a more obvious promotion effect on exports.