近10年中国化肥投入格局演变及展望

Evolution of Fertilizer Input Pattern in China in the Past 10 Years and Outlook

基于全国各省份化肥施用量、化肥施用强度与主粮化肥施用变化程度,考察近10年中国化肥投入格局演变。2010—2020年中国化肥施用量与施用强度先上升后下降,化肥投入结构得到进一步优化,其中2015年是化肥施用量与施用强度转变的关键节点;西北地区、华东地区分别是中国这10年化肥投入的主要上升、下降地区,但华东地区与华中地区的化肥施用量仍远远超过其他地区;2010—2020年中国主粮单位面积的化肥施用都有不同程度的提升,其中复混肥增长最快,主粮的化肥施用强度一直维持高位,但在宏观环境上化肥投入已从保障粮食安全角度转变为在保障粮食安全情况下提高化肥使用效率与环保低碳。基于此,未来中国化肥投入会继续下降,但在中国粮食安全需求下,化肥施用强度仍会维持较高水平。

The evolution of fertilizer input patterns in China in the past years was examined based on the changes in fertilizer application,fertilizer application intensity and fertilizer application of staple foods in various provinces across the country.From 2010 to 2020,fertilizer use and intensity of fertilizer application in China first rose and then fell,and the structure of fertilizer input was further optimized,with 2015 being a key point in the shift in fertilizer application and intensity.Northwest China and East China were the main areas of rising and falling fertilizer inputs in China in the past decade,respectively,but the amount of fertilizer applied in East China and Central China still far exceeded that of other regions.From 2010 to 2020,fertilizer application per hectare for staple foods in China has increased to varying degrees,with compound fertilizers growing the fastest,and the intensity of fertilizer application for staple foods has remained high,but in the macro environment fertilizer input has changed from the perspective of ensuring food security to improving the efficiency of fertilizer use and environmental protection and low carbon in the context of ensuring food security.Based on this,in the future,China's fertilizer input will continue to decline,but the intensity of fertilizer application will remain high under the needs of China's food security.