关于碳中和的几个基本问题的分析与思考

Understanding the Nature and Rationale of Carbon Neutrality

实现碳中和,需要对碳中和的实际要义把握准确。本文就碳中和的几个基本问题展开分析讨论,从环境、技术、经济、安全、国际合作等多个视角探析表明:碳中和需要聚焦,关键和重点必须锁定化石能源燃烧排放的二氧化碳;化石能源具有短期的“压舱石”地位,但其属性表明不可能驶向可持续的未来,其有序退出具有必然性,颠覆性的零碳能源生产与消费革命性技术创新正在提速市场挤出化石能源的进程;零碳能源导向的碳中和进程正在化解市场阻力,释放高质量发展的动能;碳捕获和碳汇不可或缺,但不能寄予厚望;碳中和需要资金,但资金流巨大,零碳产业产品已然具有并在不断提升市场竞争力;投资高碳,不仅高碳锁定增加碳中和的难度,而且加剧能源安全风险,难以避免市场挤出的风险,造成巨额资产闲置;去碳是潮流所向、大势所趋,不仅是国际道义站位的竞争和话语权重的标志,也是市场竞争力的焦点所在;迈向碳中和,中国的目标年是2060年前,不是一蹴而就,勿需急、不必急,行稳才能致远;但也不能等、不可慢,需要目标精准、布局有序、只争朝夕、全面转型;碳中和不仅是能源革命,更是一种生产关系和发展范式的革命性转型。

To achieve carbon neutrality, it is necessary to comprehend the essence of carbon neutrality accurately.This paper looks into a few fundamental issues of carbon neutrality, and provides an indepth analysis from perspectives of environmental sustainability, technological innovation, economic viability, energy security and international cooperation.It is shown that carbon neutrality needs to be focused on fossil fuel related emissions.Fossil fuel energy is considered to play a role as a short-term “ballast stone”,but its attributes indicate that it is impossible to drive to a sustainable future, and its gradual phasing out is inevitable.Disruptive technological revolution is accelerating the transition from carbon intensive energy to zero-carbon energy production and stable supply.Carbon neutrality proves not a barrier to economic growth, but a driver of high quality development.Carbon capture and sinks are indispensable, but they are unable to provide a satisfactory solution to carbon neutrality.Carbon neutralization requires substantial amount of investment, but the availability of capital can be more than sufficient.Zero carbon industrial products are now competitive in the market and the cost continues to go down.Investment in high carbon fossil fuel industry can be risky.High carbon lock-in not only increases the difficulty of carbon neutrality, but also intensifies the risk of energy security, and it is difficult to avoid the risk of market crowding out, resulting in huge amount of capital wastes.Consequently, decarbonization is the trend of our times.Phasing out fossil fuel carbon emissions is not only a moral responsibility, but also the focus of market competitiveness.However, the target year for carbon neutrality in China is before 2060,rather than a short term goal.Therefore, it is impossible and unnecessary to have it realised overnight.The opportunity of carbon neutrality should be well taken for quality growth of the economy and enhancement of people’s well being.Carbon neutrality is a long term process which calls for thorough plan and step-by-step action.It is also evident that along with energy revolution from both the production and consumption side, carbon neutrality accelerates the comprehensive transformation of our society towards sustainability and ushers in a new development paradigm.