我国城乡教育不平等的队列演变趋势——基于CGSS多期横截面数据的实证分析

Cohort Evolutionary Trends of Rural-Urban Educational Inequality in China——Empirical Analysis Based on CGSS Multi-period Cross-sectional Data

基于CGSS的5期数据,文章从教育结果不平等和教育机会不平等关系的角度分析了我国城乡教育不平等的队列演变趋势。研究发现,对于1949—1995年出生的城乡居民而言,城乡教育结果不平等随队列的演进呈现先降后升的“V”形变迁趋势,最低点出现在1970队列附近。对城乡教育结果不平等的分解分析发现,这是各升学阶段的机会不平等和权重共同变化的结果。在早期队列当中,小学入学率的饱和有效地缓解了城乡教育结果不平等。而到了晚期队列,初中升高中阶段机会不平等的上升及权重的大幅增加使得该阶段成为城乡教育结果不平等的主要来源。本研究的政策意涵在于:降低农村籍学生基础教育辍学率,提升其高中升学率对于缩小当前阶段的城乡教育结果不平等至关重要。

Based on data from CGSS 5,the article analyses the cohort evolution trend of urban-rural educational inequality in China from the perspective of the relationship between inequality in educational outcomes and inequality in educational opportunities.The study found that for urban and rural residents born between 1949 and 1995,inequality in educational outcomes between urban and rural areas showed a“V”shaped trend of decreasing and then increasing with the evolution of the cohort,with the lowest point occurring near the 1970 cohort.A decomposition of inequality in educational outcomes between urban and rural areas reveals that this is the result of a combination of changes in inequality of opportunity and weighting at each stage of schooling.In the early cohort,saturation of primary school enrolment effectively mitigated rural-urban inequality in educational outcomes.In the late cohort,however,the rise in inequality of opportunity and the significant increase in weighting at the junior secondary to post-secondary level make this level the main source of inequality in educational outcomes between urban and rural areas.The policy implication of this study is that reducing the dropout rate of rural students from basic education and increasing their transition rate to upper secondary school is critical to reducing the inequality of educational outcomes between rural and urban areas at this stage.