中国养老资源配置与服务利用协调发展的时空演化——基于机构分层分析框架

Spatio-temporal evolution of the coordinated development of China’s pension resources allocation and service utilization: Based on the hierarchical analysis framework of institutions

目的:评价我国养老资源配置与服务利用协调发展的时空演化,为制定养老资源配置政策提供参考。方法:基于机构分层分析框架,应用卫生资源密度指数、熵值法、耦合协调评价模型对2015—2020年中国31个省(直辖市、自治区)的养老机构、社区养老服务机构和设施数据进行分析,探讨养老资源配置与服务利用协调发展的时空演化特征。结果:我国养老机构、社区养老服务机构和设施的资源配置整体呈上升态势,但综合发展水平指数不高,各省市之间存在较大差异。两类机构的耦合协调度均呈东高西低的空间分布格局,且整体呈下降趋势。2020年养老机构的总耦合协调度水平略高于社区养老服务机构,但后者的耦合协调度平均状况优于前者,且改善情况更为明显。整体来看,两类机构的相对发展度均由资源配置滞后型向服务利用滞后型方向发展。结论:在制定养老资源配置政策中,应关注地区老年人口数量和分布情况,提高资源配置的精准性;注重养老资源配置的地区公平性,加强区域内的资源配置规划和区域之间的资源共享;结合地区养老资源配置与服务利用的相对发展度情况,动态调整资源配置策略。

Objective: To evaluate the spatio-temporal evolution of the coordinated development of pension resources allocation and service utilization in China, so as to provide references for the policy-making of pension resource allocation. Methods: Based on the hierarchical analysis framework of institutions, the health resource density index, entropy method, and coupling coordination evaluation model were used to analyze the data of eldercare institutions, community eldercare institutions and facilities in 31 provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions in China from 2015 to 2020. Results: The resource allocation of eldercare institutions and community eldercare institutions and facilities in China showed overall an upward trend, but the comprehensive development level index was not high. Relatively large differences were found among different provinces. The coupling coordination degree of the two types of institutions showed a spatial distribution pattern of being high in the east and low in the west, and an overall downward trend. In 2020, the total coupling coordination level of eldercare institutions was slightly higher than that of community eldercare institutions and facilities, but the latter had a high average coupling coordination level across provinces and cities than the former, and the improvement was also more obvious. In general, the relative development of these two types of institutions both showed a transition from the resource-allocation-lagging type to the service-utilization-lagging type. Conclusion: In the future, in the process of making decisions on the allocation of pension resources, attention should be paid to the regional number and distribution of the elderly population, to improve the accuracy of resource allocation. Furthermore, it is necessary to focus on the fairness of pension resource allocation among different regions, and strengthen intra-region resource allocation planning and inter-region resource sharing. By considering the relative degree of development of pension resources and service utilization in each region, the resources allocation strategy should be dynamically adjusted.