中国新型城镇化与民生物流的协同发展研究——基于全国统一大市场建设视角

Research on the Coordinated Development of China’s New Urbanization and Livelihood Logistics——From the Perspective of Building a Unified National Market

民生物流是我国新型城镇化“质”与“量”双提升的重要助推器。文章基于协同理论,构建2010—2020年我国新型城镇化与民生物流复合系统协同度模型,以探究协同发展水平变化趋势;运用灰色关联度方法,研究影响复合系统协同水平的关键因子。结果表明:我国新型城镇化与民生物流子系统总体上有序度急速上升,复合系统协调度水平呈螺旋式上升趋势。值得注意的是,2019—2020年间,新型城镇化子系统有序度下降,但民生物流却实现逆势增长;产业结构水平与新型城镇化及民生物流复合两系统协同水平关联度最高,而R&D人员数量、货物周转量与两系统协同水平关联度最低;民生物流发展水平存在空间分布差异特征。因此,完善现代新型城镇化体系的同时,要及时建立高效规范、柔性便利的民生物流市场机制。这既有利于精准对接乡村振兴战略,亦可助力构建全国统一大市场,实现新型城镇化与民生物流协同发展。

Livelihood logistics is an important booster for the "qualitative" and "quantitative" improvement of China’s new urbanization. Firstly, paper based on the synergy theory, the synergy degree model of China’s new urbanization and livelihood logistics composite system from 2010 to 2020 was constructed to explore the trend of the synergy development level between them. Secondly, the grey correlation model was used to identify the key factors affecting the synergy level of the composite system. The results show that:(1) during the study period, except 2019-2020, the order degree of China’s new urbanization and livelihood logistics subsystem rises rapidly, and the coordination degree of the composite system presents a spiral upward trend. It is worth noting that between 2019 and 2020, the order degree of the new-type urbanization subsystem decreased, while the livelihood logistics increased against the trend.(2) Among the factors affecting the coordination level of new urbanization and livelihood logistics, the order is: industrial structure level & GT;Retail sales of consumer goods & GT;Urban fixed asset investment & GT;Urban household consumption & GT;Internet Penetration rate & GT;National financial expenditure of transportation industry& GT;Turnover of goods & GT;Number of R&D personnel. The level of industrial structure has the highest correlation with the level of synergy between the two systems, while the number of R&D personnel and the turnover of goods have the lowest correlation with the level of synergy between the two systems.(3) ArcGis data visualization results show that there are spatial differences in the development level of livelihood logistics, which is mainly reflected in the Yangtze River Economic Belt, Pearl River Delta and BeijingTianjin-Hebei economic circles as the main bearing areas of livelihood logistics industry agglomeration,while the development of livelihood logistics in western and northern provinces is relatively backward. In improving the modern new urbanization system, therefore, at the same time, in a timely manner to establish efficient, flexible convenient logistics market mechanism of the people’s livelihood, promote cold chain based on value chain Angle, processing, distribution, trade and other functions, to facilitate accurate docking rural revitalization strategy, can also help to build a unified national market, realize the coordinated development of new type of urbanization and people’s livelihood logistics.