经济增长门槛下人口集聚对雾霾污染的影响

Impact of Population Agglomeration on Haze Pollution under the Threshold of Economic Growth

基于2009—2018年中国长三角27个地级市的面板数据,运用固定效应模型和门槛回归模型,实证分析经济增长门槛下人口集聚对雾霾污染的影响。研究表明:人口集聚能够有效抑制雾霾污染,但人口集聚与经济增长的交互项会加剧雾霾污染;人口集聚对雾霾污染影响存在单门槛效应,经济增长跨过门槛值后,人口集聚对雾霾污染的负向作用呈“阶梯式”递减。在剔除特殊样本和替换核心解释变量等稳健性检验后,该结论仍然成立。上述发现对于城市雾霾治理具有重要启示,在制定人口迁移政策时,应考虑当地经济增长规模,充分发挥人口集聚对雾霾污染的抑制作用。

On the basis of the panel data of 27 prefecture-level cities in the Yangtze River Delta of China from 2009—2018, the threshold effect of economic growth in the effect of population agglomeration on haze pollution is empirically analyzed by using a fixed-effects model and a threshold regression model. The study shows that: population agglomeration can effectively suppress haze pollution, but the interaction term between population agglomeration and economic growth can aggravate haze pollution;there is a single threshold effect of population agglomeration on haze pollution, and the negative effect of population agglomeration on haze pollution decreases in a “stepwise” manner before and after economic growth crosses the threshold. This finding still holds after robustness tests such as excluding special samples and replacing core explanatory variables. The above findings have important implications for urban haze control. When formulating population migration policies, it is necessary to consider the scale of local economic growth and give full play to the inhibitory effect of population agglomeration on haze pollution.