中断风险下供应链选址博弈模型构建方法

Construction Method of Supply Chain Location Game Model under Interruption Risk

为了降低由供应商生产经营中断带来的供应链中断风险,降低由设施中断造成的运输成本,提出中断风险下供应链选址博弈模型构建方法。在中断风险下通过供应链回收投资决策,揭示制造商突发风险规避程度对供应链投资弹性最优水平的影响,基于分析结果得出核心企业和替代企业的决策者同意在双方合作后增值预期大于零的前提下实施加入战略,在目标企业范围中选择最优企业。并在转移支付条件下,设定满足企业平衡战略组合的必要条件,满足核心企业期望值。构建供应链选址博弈模型,提高整个供应链系统的可靠性,最大限度地降低中断风险,使供应链企业可以形成长期的合作关系。实验结果表明:上述模型提高了供应链选址的定量化水平,降低了企业中断风险,并且该模型能够满足最小期望成本。

In order to reduce the risk of supply chain interruption caused by supplier production and operation interruption and reduce the transportation cost caused by facility interruption,a game model construction method of supply chain location under interruption risk is proposed.Under the interruption risk,based on the investment recovery decision of supply chain,this paper reveals the impact of manufacturer's sudden risk aversion on the optimal level of supply chain investment elasticity.Based on the analysis results,it is concluded that the decision-makers of the core enterprise and the substitute enterprise agree to implement the joining strategy on the premise that the expected value-added after the cooperation is greater than zero.In the scope of target enterprises,the best enterprise was selected.Under the condition of transfer payment,the necessary conditions to meet the balanced strategic portfolio of enterprises were set to meet the expectations of core enterprises.The game model of supply chain location was established to improve the reliability of the whole supply chain system,so that the supply chain enterprises can form a long-term cooperative relationship.The results show that the model not only improves the quantitative level of supply chain location,but also reduces the risk of enterprise disruption,and the model can meet the minimum expected cost.