基于T-S模糊故障树和贝叶斯网络的注水管道失效概率计算方法研究

Study on Failure Probability Calculation Method of Water Injection Pipeline based on T-S Fuzzy Fault Tree and Bayesian Network

随着油田注水系统的运行,其安全评价问题越来越受到重视,但定性的安全评价不能充分体现注水管道的状态。将T-S模糊故障树和贝叶斯网络原理与注水管道危险有害因素及失效特征相结合,并根据可获取的油田检测数据,建立了注水管道T-S模糊故障树与贝叶斯网络图,采用模糊子集来描述根节点故障概率,计算了中间节点和叶节点各个故障状态对应的故障概率模糊子集,形成了注水管道失效概率计算方法,对注水管道进行定量安全评价,从而判断注水管道安全状态,指导现场安全生产。

With the operation of the oilfield water injection system,the safety evaluation problem has been paid more and more attention,but the qualitative safety evaluation wasn't able to fully reflect the state of the water injection pipeline.This paper combined the principle of T-S fuzzy fault tree and Bayesian network with the harmful factors and failure characteristics of the water injection pipeline,and established the T-S fuzzy fault tree and Bayesian network diagram,and the fuzzy subset was used to describe the fault probability of the root node and leaf node,form the failure probability calculation method to determine the safety status of the water injection pipeline and guide the safe production on site.