关于抗震防灾的若干思考

Some thoughts on earthquake resistance and disaster prevention

本文试图从哲学和科学的角度,就我国地震工程研究和防震减灾事业的若干问题进行讨论。论文指出:宏观考察得出的地震烈度并不具备科学概念应有的确切内涵和外延;地震危险性分析结果不可能被验证;抗震设防标准的采用从根本上取决于社会经济与技术的发展水平;断层避让研究尚未达到工程应用阶段;不能追求结构地震反应数值模拟的精确结果。最后,提出了对当前地震工程研究的建议和前景展望。

This paper attempts to discuss several issues in China’s earthquake engineering researches and disaster reduction undertakings based on a philosophical and scientific points of view.The paper points out that the seismic intensity by macroscopic investigation does not have the exact connotation and extension of scientific concepts,it is impossible to verify the results risk analysis,the adoption of seismic fortification standards fundamentally depends on the development level of social economy and technology,the research of fault avoidance has not yet reached the stage of engineering application,the exact results of numerical simulation of structural seismic response cannot be pursued.Finally,some of suggestions and prospects for seismic engineering researches are proposed.