国际货币基金组织定量估算中美“科技脱钩”研究及对我国的启示

Implications of IMF’s Research on Sizing Up the Effects of China-US Technological Decoupling

基于“中美两国贸易战的实质就是科技战”的普遍认知,对中美“科技脱钩”的相关研究是近几年的研究热点。国际货币基金组织2021年发布的一项代表性成果研究结论表明:中美“科技脱钩”,不仅中国成本高昂,美国代价也仅次于中国,并且世界上大多数国家GDP也会随之损失。总体估算中美“科技脱钩”对全球GDP的打击程度将10倍于中美贸易战。此项研究发表后在全球政策研究界引起了较大反响。本文对国际货币基金组织此项研究的方法、逻辑、模型、数据等进行了细化分析,并总结了对我国的启示。

Based on the common spread view that the essence of the trade war is the science and technology war,China-US Technological Decoupling is one of the key research issues.One of the IMF leading research conclusion shows:In terms of China-US technological decoupling,China-US technological decoupling will cause China to pay a lot while US will pay a lot just less than China;the research alerts that China-US technological decoupling strategy will cause that GDP of most countries in the world will decrease and it will be a 10-fold decrease than China-US trade war.This research has a big impact on global policy research arena.This paper analyzes the method,logic,model,data of the IMF research and puts forward its implications to China.