全球经济治理体系变革趋势研判

A Study of Trends in the Transformation of the Global Economic Governance System

在外生冲击和大国博弈的背景下,当前全球经济治理体系面临冷战后最大幅度的调整和结构性重塑。通过分析全球经济治理体系的演进,可以看出,外生冲击是体系演变的破坏性力量,引起国家行为体内部观念、权力和利益结构的改变,而基于结构性变化国家行为体的大国博弈,推动全球经济治理体系变革。在新冠疫情全球蔓延、俄乌冲突和新一轮技术革命的冲击下,大国战略竞争加剧,可能导致全球经济治理体系裂变为“准平行体系”。为避免全球经济治理体系分裂,中国应积极发挥自身作用,反对单边主义和伪多边主义,践行“共商共建共享”的全球治理观,推动构建人类命运共同体;扎实推进制度型开放,提升制度性话语权;推进“一带一路”高质量发展以及“金砖+”合作机制建设,落实全球发展倡议,参与引领全球经济治理体系重塑。

Against the background of external impact and great power competition,the current global economic governance system is facing the biggest adjustment and structural reshaping since the Cold War.Through the analysis of the evolution of the global economic governance system,we can see that the external shock is the destructive force of the system evolution,causing the change of the internal concept,power and interest structure of state actors.The great power game based on structurally changing state actors will promote the reform of the global economic governance system.Under the impact of the global spread of COVID-19,the conflict between Russia and Ukraine and the new round of technological revolution,the strategic competition among major countries is intensifying,which may lead to the fission of the global economic governance system into a“parallel system”.To avoid fragmentation of the global economic governance system,China should actively play its role,oppose unilateralism and pseudo-multilateralism,practice the global governance concept of“extensive consultation,joint contribution and shared benefits”,and promote the building of a community with a shared future for mankind.Promote institutional opening up and enhance institutional discourse power;We will advance high-quality Belt and Road development and BRICS Plus cooperation mechanisms,implement global development initiatives,and participate in leading the reshaping of the global economic governance system.