稀土矿产品价格波动对稀土产业链延伸的影响

Impact of price fluctuation of rare earth minerals on the extension of rare earth industry chain

促进稀土产业链延伸是做强中国稀土的根本路径,而稀土矿产品价格的稳定性直接关系着微观企业实现产业链延伸战略的意愿,在较大程度上影响中国稀土产业链延伸的进程。基于价格传导理论,构建稀土矿产品价格波动影响产业链延伸的VEC模型,利用2014年第1季度至2021年第3季度稀土矿产品价格的季度数据,采用Johansen协整检验、Granger因果关系检验、VEC模型估计、脉冲响应等方法实证检验稀土矿产品价格波动对稀土产业链延伸的影响。研究结果表明,稀土矿产品价格波动对稀土产业链延伸具有显著的负向影响,并具有持久性的特点。为此,亟待建立稀土矿产品价格预警机制,制定科学规范的稀土资源战略收储和释放制度,适时增加稀土矿产品总量控制计划指标。

Promoting the extension of the rare earth industry chain is the fundamental path to develop China’s rare earth, and the stability of rare earth mineral prices is directly related to the willingness of micro-enterprises to realize the extension strategy of the industry chain, which to a large extent affects the process of China’s rare earth industrial chain extension. Based on the price transmission theory, this paper constructs a VEC model in which the price fluctuations of rare earth minerals affect the extension of the industrial chain, and uses the quarterly data of rare earth mineral prices from the first quarter of 2014 to the third quarter of 2021 to empirically test the impact of rare earth mineral price fluctuations on the extension of the rare earth industrial chain by using Johansen cointegration test, Granger causality test, VEC model estimation and impulse response. The research results show that the price fluctuation of rare earth minerals has a significant negative impact on the extension of the rare earth industry chain, and will last for a long time. Therefore, it is urgent to establish an early warning mechanism for the price of rare earth mineral products, formulate a scientific and standardized system for the strategic collection, storage and release of rare earth resources, and timely increase the total amount control plan indicators of rare earth minerals.