新中国成立以来人口生育变迁的回眸与前瞻

Retrospect and Prospect of Population and Fertility Changes since the Founding of New China

人口生育问题事关社会稳定、国家长远发展与民族未来。新中国成立以来,我国人口发展经历了自主生育阶段与生育政策的初探、政策干预阶段与生育模式的转型探索、低生育率惯性与政策调整间的博弈的变迁过程。当前持续低生育率已然成为中国人口结构的基本表征,由此引发的劳动力供给不足、人口老龄化等一系列社会问题不容忽视。针对当前社会实际,需要从人口发展观念、人口生育政策、家庭支撑体系三个方面探寻破解之策。

The issue of population bearing concerns social stability,the long-term development of the country and the future of the nation.Since the founding of the People′s Republic of China,China′s population development has experienced the transition process of independent fertility stage and fertility policy exploration,policy intervention stage and fertility mode transformation exploration,low fertility inertia and policy adjustment game.At present,the continuous low fertility rate has become the basic representation of China′s population structure,resulting in a series of social problems,such as insufficient labor supply and aging population,which cannot be ignored.In view of the present social reality,we need to explore the solutions from three aspects:the concept of population development,population fertility policy and family support system.