广东省城市供水安全水平时空格局及成因分析

Analysis on the Spatial and Temporal Patterns and the Causes of Urban Water Supply Security in Guangdong Province

依据广东省2010年~2020年21个地级市经济社会发展和供(用)水数据,研究构建城市供水安全保障评价指标体系,采用指标体系法评价各地市供水安全保障水平,利用贝叶斯时空分配模型揭示供水安全保障水平时空格局的变化特征及其主要影响因素。结果表明,广东省城市供水安全保障水平近10年总体呈波动下降趋势,2017年后下降明显;其供水安全保障水平空间不均衡格局显著;人口密度、人均GDP、万元GDP用水量以及工业用水量是该省城市供水安全保障水平的主要影响因素。人口密度和人均GDP在珠三角形成高值聚集区,而万元GDP用水量则在珠三角形成低值聚集区,是该省城市供水安全保障水平时空格局形成的主要成因。

Based on the economic and social development and water supply(use)data of 21 prefecture-level cities in Guangdong Province from 2010 to 2020,an urban water supply security evaluation index system is constructed to evaluate the water supply security level of each city,and further the Bayesian spatiotemporal distribution model is used to reveal the changing characteristics of the spatial-temporal pattern of water supply security in Guangdong Province and the main influencing factors.The results show that,(a)in overall,the level of water supply security in Guangdong Province shows a fluctuating decreasing trend in recent 10 years,and has a significant decreasing trend after the year of 2017;(b)the spatial pattern of the level of water supply security in Guangdong Province has been significantly imbalanced;and(c)the population density,per capita GDP,water consumption per ten thousand yuan of GDP and industrial water consumption are the main factors affecting the level of urban water supply security in the province.The population density and per capita GDP form a high-value cluster in the Pearl River Delta,while the water consumption per ten thousand yuan of GDP forms a low-value cluster in the Pearl River Delta,which is the main cause for the formation of the spatial and temporal pattern of the level of urban water supply security in Guangdong Province.