国家建构与地缘博弈:乌克兰危机的一种分析视角

State Building and Geopolitical Game:An Analytical Perspective for the Ukraine Crisis

俄罗斯发起特别军事行动,乌克兰危机升级。与2014年克里米亚“脱乌入俄”时的妥协立场不同,乌克兰这次采取了坚决抵抗的态度。西方与俄罗斯关系恶化,乌克兰成为地缘竞争的对象,其国家建构方式构成了博弈的重要内容,这为理解乌克兰危机及其升级提供了有益的分析思路。西方倡导公民民族主义,俄罗斯则依凭族群民族主义,促使乌克兰国家建构在上述两种路径中摇摆。2014年以后,乌克兰迅速向西方靠拢,采取公民民族主义建构方式,却因民主化转型困难,内核仍然是族群民族主义,引发民族主义上升和民粹主义抬头。受此影响,乌克兰按照北约模式进行军队改革,在国际谈判中立场强硬,使得《明斯克协议》执行困难,导致危机升级。从国家建构视角理解乌克兰危机,本质在于乌克兰未能找到一条适合自己的国家建构路径,在外部干预下国家分裂,这为多民族国家建构带来重要启示。

Russia started the special military operation and the Ukraine crisis escalated.Different from the compromise when Crimea“seceded from Ukraine and joined Russia”in 2014,Ukraine has adopted an attitude of firm resistance this time.The relationship between the West and Russia has deteriorated,and Ukraine has become the object of geopolitical competition.Its state building constitutes an important part of the game,which provides a useful analytical framework for understanding this crisis and its escalation.The West advocates civic nationalism while Russia relies on ethnic nationalism,which push Ukraine to oscillate between these two paths in state building.Since 2014 Ukraine has quickly embraced the West and chosen civic nationalism.However,with ethnic nationalism still as its core and due to difficulties in transition to democracy,nationalism and populism rose.Under these influences,Ukraine carried out military reforms in accordance with the NATO model and took a tough stance in international negotiations,which made the implementation of the Minsk Agreement difficult and led to an escalation of the crisis.To understand the Ukraine crisis from the perspective of state building,the essence is that Ukraine failed to find a suitable path and it was divided under external intervention.This sheds light on the state building of multi-ethnic countries.