考虑心理潜变量及异质性的电动汽车联合充电选择行为研究

A study on joint charging choice behavior for electric vehicles considering psychological latent variables and heterogeneity

为深入剖析电动汽车用户联合充电方式和充电地点的选择行为,揭示用户心理潜变量、社会经济属性及充电属性对其联合充电选择行为的共同影响,文章基于上海市电动汽车用户的实证调查数据进行分析研究,构建考虑心理潜变量的混合选择模型剖析联合充电选择行为的决策机理。分析结果表明:风险规避态度、里程焦虑及充电习惯均对联合充电选择存在显著影响;混合选择模型的拟合度明显优于混合Logit模型;日出行距离、充电费用、停车政策等属性在模型估计中表现出异质性。对用户联合充电方式和充电地点的选择行为预测结果表明,混合选择模型的预测值与实际调查数据的误差在5%以内,混合选择模型具有更高的预测能力和解释能力。该文研究结果可为充电需求预测及充电管理策略提供一定的理论依据。

To analyze the choice behavior of electric vehicle users’joint charging mode and charging location,the influence of users’psychological latent variables,socioeconomic attributes and charging attributes on their joint charging choice behavior was revealed.Based on the questionnaire data of electric vehicle users in Shanghai,a hybrid choice model considering psychological latent variables was used to analyze the decision-making mechanism of joint charging choice behavior.The results show that risk aversion attitude,range anxiety and charging habits have significant effects on joint charging choice behavior.The fitting degree of the hybrid choice model considering psychological latent variables is significantly better than that of the mixed logit model.Travel distance,charging cost,and parking policy show heterogeneity in model estimation.Finally,the users’joint charging mode and location choice behavior was predicted.The results show that the error between the predicted value of the hybrid choice model and the survey data is within 5%,the hybrid choice model has higher predictive ability and explanatory ability.The research results can provide a theoretical basis for charging demand forecasting and charging management strategies.