资本账户开放与资源配置效率--来自跨国样本的经验证据

Capital Account Openness and Resource Allocation--Evidence from the Industrial Sector in the World

资本账户开放是近年来众多新兴市场经济体关注的重点。本文以1995—2018年45个国家23个行业数据为样本,拓展Fisman and Love(2004)的模型,着重考察一国资本账户开放对资源配置效率的影响及作用机制。研究发现:资本账户开放显著提升了资源配置效率,在运用其他资本账户开放指标做一系列稳健性检验后,结论仍然成立。异质性检验发现,在增长机会更相近、法律规则更完善,以及金融监管更为严格的国家,资本账户开放会引致资源配置效率更大程度的改善。同时,资源配置效率的提升效应在放松资本流入、流出管制,以及放松股权和债券管制等方面均有所体现,进一步分析发现,放松资本流入管制及债券管制的效应更为强劲。机制分析表明,资本账户开放通过缓解融资约束、改善信息环境,以及促进竞争和研发等途径促进资源配置效率提升。本文的研究表明,资本账户开放对促进实体经济健康发展有着重要作用,这为进一步扩大资本账户开放提供了理论依据。

Capital account openness has been a key focus for many emerging market economies in recent years. After the global financial crisis in 2008,policymakers and scholars began to re-examine the consequences of capital account openness,and many emerging market economies even adopted capital controls to prevent capital inflows. The impact of capital account openness on resource allocation and economic growth remains controversial and deserves further exploration. Capital account openness is also a very important issue facing China. While proposing to promote the capital account openness in an orderly manner,China has also put forward the financial regulatory requirements of improving the management framework of macro-prudential and micro-compliance for cross-border capital flows in order to prevent risks. It can be seen that capital account openness is in a conflicting position,and it is of great theoretical and practical significance to clarify the relationship between capital account openness and resource allocation efficiency.This paper extends the methodology of Fisman and Love(2004)to exmine the incremental effect of capital account openness on the comovement in real growth in value added for 23 industries during 1995—2018 across 45 countries. In addition,it uses the Schindler Index to measure the level of capital account openness across countries and to conduct a country pairs analysis. By this means,this paper attempts to reveal whether enterprises in two countries with high-level capital account openness respond positively to the same global industry-specific growth opportunity shocks in similar ways,which leads to comovement of industrial growth rate between the two countries and ultimately improves the efficiency of resource allocation. Also,this paper conducts a series of robustness tests and heterogeneity tests,and explains and tests the mechanism.Research results show that capital account openness has significantly improved the efficiency of resource allocation,and the conclusion still holds after a series of robustness tests. Heterogeneity tests reveals that capital account openness leads to stronger effects in countries with more similar growth opportunities,better legal rules and stricter financial supervision. Moreover,such an influence is reflected in the deregulation on capital inflow and outflow,as well as the equity and bonds. However,the effect is more pronounced when deregulating capital inflow and bond controls. Mechanism analysis shows that capital account openness improves the efficiency of resource allocation by reducing the cost of capital,improving the quality of information environment and promoting competition and R&D.This paper finds that capital account openness plays an important role in facilitating the healthy development of real economy. Emerging market economies should promote the capital account openness in an orderly manner and particularly focus on the opening of foreign capital inflows so as to realize the efficient allocation of capital production factors in China. Meanwhile,relevant laws and regulations and financial supervision framework should be improved during the capital account openness in order to prevent risks.Compared with previous studies using micro-enterprise data,this paper uses industrial data across countries for analysis and expands the relevant research scope from micro-allocation efficiency to industry allocation efficiency. This not only enriches the research in related fields,but also provides a theoretical basis for China to further expand the capital account openness. Furthermore,this paper enriches research on the causes of resource allocation efficiency from the perspective of regulation. It also enriches and expands literature on the economic effects of capital account openness and explores the direct mechanism channels for capital account openness to promote economic growth. This is conducive to understanding how capital account openness can better serve the high-quality development of the real economy.