数字化投入与制造业全球价值链攀升——基于49国面板数据的实证分析

Digital Input and the Rise of Manufacturing Global Value Chain——An Empirical Analysis Based on Panel Data of 49 Countries

数字经济的蓬勃发展掀起了传统产业数字化转型的浪潮,驱动着全球价值链的重构,为处于“低端锁定”困局的国家提供了向价值链中高端跃升的绝佳机遇。本文基于2007~2019年49个国家的面板数据,实证检验了数字化投入对制造业在全球价值链地位提升的影响效应。研究表明:(1)数字化投入对制造业全球价值链分工地位具有显著正向影响,且这一结论在多重稳健性检验和内生性分析后仍然显著;(2)通过异质性检验发现,数字化投入对高、中高收入国家以及复杂全球价值链活动的分工地位具有更强烈的影响;(3)全要素生产率对数字化投入影响制造业全球价值链地位具有正向调节作用,具体表现为一国全要素生产率越高,数字化投入对其制造业全球价值链分工地位的推动作用就越强。为此,提出政策建议,以期为更好发挥数字经济效应、促进制造业转型升级以及推动全球价值链地位提升提供有益思路。

The vigorous development of the digital economy has set off a wave of digital transformation of traditional industries,driven the reconstruction of the global value chain,and provided countries in the“low-locked”predicament with an excellent opportunity to jump to the mid-to-high end of the value chain.Based on the panel data of 49 countries from 2007 to 2019,this paper empirically tests the impact of digital input on the rise of manufacturing to the middle and high end of the value chain.The study finds that:(1)digital input has a significant positive impact on the position of manufacturing in the global value chain,and this conclusion is still significant after multiple robustness tests and endogenous analysis.(2)Through the heterogeneity test,it is found that digital input has a stronger impact on position of high,upper middle income countries and complex global value chain activities.(3)Total factor productivity has a positive moderating effect on the impact of digital input on the position of manufacturing in the global value chain.Specifically,the higher the total factor productivity of a country,the stronger the promotion of digital input on its position in the global value chain of manufacturing.To this end,policy recommendations are put forward in order to provide useful ideas for better exerting the effect of the digital economy,promoting the transformation and upgrading of the manufacturing industry,and promoting the status of the global value chain.