考虑疫苗技术水平与国际关系影响的国际疫苗合作随机演化博弈模型

Stochastic Evolutionary Game Model of International Vaccine Cooperation Considering the Impact of Vaccine Technology Level and International Relations

国际合作能够提高疫苗先进水平,进而对疫情治理产生重要影响。国际疫苗合作局面能否形成,不仅要考虑各国参与疫苗合作的成本收益,其还受到各国疫情治理理念、疫情危害程度、国情差异等多方面随机因素的影响。本文针对不确定性因素影响下的疫苗国际合作研发态势的演化过程,构建了基于Moran过程的随机演化博弈模型,分别计算了收益和随机因素占据主导的情境下个体国家参与国际疫苗合作的均衡结果。本文研究表明,个体国家是否参与国际疫苗合作取决于国际关系亲疏程度、疫苗技术水平、随机因素、参与疫苗合作研发的收益以及参与合作国的数量。收益因素占据主导的情境下,参与国数量大于一定数值时,参与合作的策略侵占整个种群,国际疫苗合作的态势形成;随机因素占据主导的情境下,个体国家依据净收益决定是否参与国际疫苗合作,整体演化是否能够趋于国际合作取决于个体国家参与及不参与合作的收益值。两种情境下本国疫苗技术水平都会对国际疫苗合作产生不确定性影响,而国际关系密切程度的提升均能对国际疫苗合作局面的最终形成产生促进作用。基于情境扩展分析,本文还发现,美国疫苗霸凌行为对国际疫苗合作带来较大负面影响,而我国“动态清零”政策下应深度加强和促进国际疫苗合作;此外,在当前疫情发展态势下,国际疫苗合作能够更有效促进各国之间的优势互补,合作的积极意义越来越凸显。

International cooperation can improve the advanced level of vaccines,and then have an important impact on epi⁃demic control.Whether international vaccine cooperation can finally take shape depends not only on the costs and benefits of partici⁃pating in vaccine cooperation in the world,but also on the impact of various random factors,such as the concept of epidemic con⁃trol,the degree of harm of the epidemic and the differences in national conditions.This paper constructs a stochastic evolutionary game model based on Moran process,and calculates the equilibrium results of individual countries􀆳participation in the situation where the benefits and stochastic factors are dominant.This study shows that whether individual countries participate in international cooperative vaccine development depends on the degree of international relations,the level of vaccine technology,random factors,the benefits of individual countries􀆳participation in vaccine cooperative research,and the number of participating countries.When the income factor is dominant and the number of countries is greater than a certain value,the whole population will be occupied by participating in the cooperative vaccine development strategy,and the situation of international vaccine cooperation will be formed.Under the situation dominated by random factors,individual countries decide whether to participate in international vaccine coopera⁃tion based on net income,and whether the overall evolution can tend to international cooperation depends on the income value of in⁃dividual countries participating in and not participating in cooperation.In both cases,the level of domestic vaccine technology will have an uncertain impact on international vaccine cooperation,and the improvement of international relations can promote the final formation of international vaccine cooperation.Based on the situation expansion analysis,this paper also finds that the“bullying”behavior of the United States vaccine has a great negative impact on international vaccine cooperation,and China should further strengthen and promote international vaccine cooperation under the“dynamic clearance”policy.In addition,under the current epi⁃demic situation,international vaccine cooperation can more effectively promote the complementary advantages among countries,and the positive significance of cooperation is becoming increasingly prominent.