中国城镇化长期趋势研究

On Long-Term Trend of Urbanization in China

城镇化决定着城乡劳动力市场的供给,对社会经济有重要影响。研究提出了无农村经济联系城镇化率、基于居住地的城镇化率和基于职业的城镇化率的概念,并构建了城镇化经济动力学模型,以预测城镇化的长期趋势。研究发现:如果存在城乡收入差距,则城镇化将持续;如果城乡收入差距较大,则城镇化进程加快;如果城乡收入实现了均等化,则城镇化终止,这时所实现的城镇化就是长期的城镇化。研究使用中国、美国、日本和韩国的数据验证了这一分析。研究认为,要提高我国城镇化的速度和质量,就要对相关制度进行改革,使农业以自耕农的规模经营为主,让离开农村的城镇居民脱离与农村的经济联系。

Urbanization determines the supply of urban and rural labor markets and has an important impact on the economic development of the society.The study put forward the concepts of urbanization rate without rural economic linkages,urbanization rate based on place of residence and urbanization rate based on occupation,and constructed a model of urbanization economic dynamics to predict the long-term trend of urbanization.The study found that if there is an urban-rural income gap,urbanization will continue;if the urban-rural income gap gets large,the urbanization process will be accelerated;if urban-rural income equalization is achieved,urbanization will be terminated,and the urbanization achieved at this time is long-term urbanization.This analysis was validated using data of China,the United States,Japan and South Korea.To improve the speed and quality of urbanization in China,the study suggests that the relevant system needs to be further reformed so that agriculture is mainly run by selfemployed farmers on a large scale,and urban residents who have left the countryside are separated from the rural economy.