因果有痕:比较教育研究中的过程追踪法

Traces of Cause and Effect:Process-tracing Method in Comparative Education Research

过程追踪法是新时代比较教育因果机制研究的一种新式质性实证方法。过程追踪法通过持续追踪比较教育个案的因果机制、深入剖析教育实体的因果痕迹,科学验证教育情境的因果规律,既能为解释不同国别特定教育现象提供多种灵活的理论机制,又能推动教育规律因果分析的科学化发展。匈牙利教师能力框架的发展过程与动力、以色列教育治理变革的发展过程和拉美国家教育私有化政策扩散的作用机制三个案例说明了如何在比较教育研究进行以因果机制、痕迹证据和贝叶斯推断为方法逻辑的过程追踪分析,揭示了不同时空与场景的教育实践“何以为是”的命题。这些研究探索了比较教育的因果过程、因果链条和因果机制,丰富了比较教育研究方法的工具箱。

Process-tracing method is a new qualitative empirical method for the study of causal mechanism of comparative education in the new era.The process-tracing method scientifically verifies the law of causality of educational situations by continuously tracing and comparing the causal mechanism of educational cases and deeply analyzing the causal traces of educational entities.It can not only provide a variety of flexible theoretical mechanisms for explaining specific educational phenomena in different countries,but also promote the scientific development of causal analysis of educational laws.Taking three comparative education cases of the development process and driving force of Hungarian teacher competence framework,the development process of educational governance reform in Israel and the mechanism of action in the diffusion of educational privatization policies in Latin American countries as samples.This article makes process-tracing analysis that takes causal mechanism,trace evidence and bayesian inference as methodological logic,revealing the proposition of "how is" in educational practice in different time,space and scenes,and exploring the causal process,causal chain and causal mechanism of comparative education to enrich the toolbox of comparative education research methods.