非粮化对粮食绿色全要素生产率的门槛效应研究

RESEARCH ON THE THRESHOLD EFFECT OF NON-GRAIN ON GRAIN GREEN TOTAL FACTOR PRODUCTIVITY

[目的]非粮化关乎国家粮食安全,研究非粮化对粮食绿色全要素生产率的门槛效应,有利于正确认识非粮化,也为制定差异化农业绿色发展政策提供理论依据。[方法]文章以2008—2018年我国26个省(市、自治区)为样本,在运用SBM-GML模型测算粮食绿色全要素生产率的基础上,结合面板门槛模型和耦合协调度模型,探究了非粮化与粮食绿色全要素生产率之间存在的非线性关系。[结果](1)样本期内所考察地区的粮食绿色全要素生产率均实现破“1”增长,且相较于粮食主产区、产销平衡区以及全国平均值而言,粮食主销区的粮食绿色全要素生产率增长更为显著。(2)非粮化对粮食绿色全要素生产率的影响,确存在以种粮利润为门槛变量的单一门槛效应,其门槛值为7.638,且两者之间的负向关系在跨过门槛值之后将显著大幅提升。(3)分区域来看,各区域非粮化与种粮利润之间耦合协调度的变动趋势,与其粮食绿色全要素生产率的变动趋势基本一致。[结论]采取差异化的非粮化控制措施,可以最大程度上提升粮食绿色全要素生产率。低门槛地区可建立非粮化预警机制,而高门槛地区则应采取严格控制措施,但都须将种粮利润协同保护作为重要工具手段。

Non-grain is related to national food security, and to study the threshold effect of non-grain on green total factor productivity of grain is conducive to a correct understanding of non-grain, and it also provides a theoretical basis for the formulation of differentiated agricultural green development policy. This paper chose 26provinces from China from 2008 to 2018 as a sample, basing on the SBM-GML model to measure the total factor productivity of food green, combined with the panel threshold model and the coupling coordination degree model to explore the non-linear relationship between total factor productivity of non-grain and green food. The results showed that:(1) During the sample period, the green total factor productivity of grain in all the provinces surveyed had broken the "1" growth, and compared with the main grain producing area, the production-marketing balance area and the national average, the green total factor productivity of grain in the main grain selling area increased significantly.(2) For effect of non-grain production on green total factor productivity of grain, and there was a single threshold effect with grain profit as the threshold variable, and the threshold value was 7.638, and the negative relationship between the two would significantly increase after crossing the threshold value.(3) From the regional perspective, the changing trend of the degree of coupling and coordination between non-grain and grain profit in each area was basically consistent with the changing trend of green total factor productivity of grains. Therefore,taking the difference of non-grain control measures can improve the green total factor productivity of grain to the greatest extent. The non-grain warning mechanism can be established in low threshold areas, while strict control measures should be taken in high threshold areas, but cooperative protection of grain profit should be taken as an important tool.