基于机场状态变化的航班延误分析

Flight Delay Analysis Based on Airport State Change

为了研究航空运输网络系统中的航班延误在机场之间的传播与吸收问题,文章建立了正常(normal)—容易延误(vulnerability)—延误(delay)—恢复(recovery)的NVDR机场状态动态变化模型。提出容易延误的中间状态来分析传播与吸收的问题,从机场自身性能和机场状态两方面进行研究,着重考虑了机场周转服务水平和机场等级的影响,以便合理地反映和理解延误传播。在复杂网络理论的基础上抽象出机场的网络结构,并在此基础上对NVDR模型进行仿真。仿真结果表明,机场等级和机场周转服务水平对不同机场的延误传播有重要影响,另外,机场状态也影响延误传播。

In order to study the propagation and absorption of flight delays in air transport network system, a normal-vulnerability-delay-recovery dynamic state model of NVDR airport is established in this paper. This paper puts forward the intermediate state which is easy to delay to analyze the problem of transmission and absorption, and studies it from two aspects of airport performance and airport state, focusing on the influence of airport turnover service level and airport grade, in order to reflect and understand delay propagation reasonably. Based on the complex network theory, the network structure of the airport is abstracted,and on this basis, the NVDR model is simulated. The simulation results show that the airport grade and airport turnover service level have an important impact on the delay propagation of different airports. In addition, the airport status also affects the delay propagation.