摘要
印度经济在过去30年经历了快速增长,1992—2019年GDP平均增长率达到6.8%;但2016年之后增速出现下降趋势,从2016年的8.3%下降到2019年的3.7%。受新冠肺炎疫情的严重冲击,2020年印度GDP大幅下降6.6%;2021年印度经济增长开始恢复,GDP增长率达8.9%。国际研究机构普遍认为,从长期看印度经济正处于转折点,未来能否继续保持高速增长面临着很多不确定性。本文在对印度过去30年经济增长的驱动力进行分析,对未来增长的潜力以及面临的风险和不确定性进行研究的基础上,建立计量模型,对印度2021—2050年长期经济增长潜力进行分析和预测,对未来印度与中国经济总量的差距进行分析。结论是未来30年印度经济保持在6%以上较高增长速度的可能性很大,中国经济总量仍保持很明显的优势,但未来两国GDP的差距会呈现缩小的趋势。
The Indian economy has experienced rapid growth in the past 30 years,with an average GDP growth rate of 6.8%from 1992 to 2019;but after 2016,the growth rate showed a downward trend,from 8.3%in 2016 to 3.7%in 2019.Affected by the COVID-19,India’s GDP drops by 6.6%in 2020;and its economic growth begin to recover in 2021,with a GDP growth rate of 8.9%.International research institutions generally believe that in the long run,the Indian economy is at a turning point,and whether it can continue to maintain rapid growth in the future faces many uncertainties.This article analyzes the drivers force of India’s economic growth over the past 30 years,based on the research on the future growth potential and the risks and uncertainties faced,establish an econometric model to analyze and forecast the long-term economic growth potential of India from 2021 to 2050,and analyze the gap between India and China’s economic aggregates in the future.The conclusion is that in the next 30 years,India’s economy is likely to maintain a high growth rate of more than 6%,and China’s economic aggregate still maintains a clear advantage,but the gap between the two countries’GDP will show a narrowing trend in the future.
出处
《全球化》
2022年第5期71-79,134,共10页
Globalization
基金
国家社会科学基金一般项目《供给侧改革与需求侧调控关系--基于中国中长期宏观经济计量模型的量化研究》(17BJY027)
国家自然科学基金重大项目《宏观大数据建模和预测研究》(71991475)的资助。
