二氧化碳排放、技术进步与经济增长——基于联立方程模型的分析

Carbon Dioxide Emissions,Technological Progress and Economic Growth:Analysis Based on Simultaneous Equation Models

基于2005—2019年中国省级面板数据,运用联立方程模型对二氧化碳排放、技术进步与经济增长间的相关关系进行实证分析,并进一步运用变换被解释变量度量的方法对回归结果进行稳健性检验。研究发现:经济增长与二氧化碳排放、技术进步与经济增长之间均存在双向显著正向影响关系,而技术进步则单向显著负向影响二氧化碳排放;在影响经济增长的因素中,第二产业占比增加对经济增长的促进作用较大,但同时带来大量的二氧化碳排放;技术进步的经济增长效应仅为二氧化碳排放的1/3,其对二氧化碳排放的抑制作用也远小于经济增长对二氧化碳排放的促进作用。因此,中国的经济增长方式尚未从资源消耗型转变为创新驱动型,技术进步的二氧化碳减排效应亟须提高。中国应提高创新能力以推动经济发展,通过省级行政区控制与产业控制落实碳排放制度以完成减排目标,维持经济合理增长以推动技术进步。

After reform and opening up,China’s economy has developed rapidly,creating a modern"growth miracle".However,fossil fuels account for a large proportion of China’s energy structure,which makes China’s carbon emissions continue to increase after entering the 21st century,and China has quickly become the world’s largest greenhouse gas emitter and energy consumer.On September 22,2020,the Chinese government proposed at the United Nations General Assembly to strive to reach a peak in carbon emissions by 2030,and strive to achieve the carbon emission reduction target of"break-even"by 2060.Under the background of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals,China is facing huge pressure to reduce carbon emissions,and technological progress is the key to realizing energy conservation and emission reduction.The systematic study of the relationship between carbon emissions,technological progress and economic growth is becoming more and more important for the judgment of China’s current economic situation and the adjustment of economic policies.The paper elaborates on the mechanisms of influence between carbon dioxide emissions,technological progress and economic growth,based on the 2005—2019 Chinese provincial panel data,it sets up a dynamic equation model,uses System Generalized Moment Estimation to conduct an empirical analysis of the three-phase relationship between carbon dioxide emissions,economic growth and technological progress,and further takes the method of transforming the measurement of the explanatory variable to test the robustness of the regression results.The study found that economic growth and carbon dioxide emissions,economic growth and technological progress have two-way significant positive effects,while technological progress has a one-way significant negative impact on carbon dioxide emissions.Among the factors that affect economic growth,the increase in the proportion of the secondary industry has played a greater role in promoting economic growth,but also brought about a large amount of carbon dioxide emissions.The economic growth effect of technological progress is only one-third of carbon dioxide emissions,and its inhibitory effect on carbon dioxide emissions is far less than the promotion of economic growth on carbon dioxide emissions.Based on this,China’s economic growth mode has not yet changed from a resource-consuming type to an innovation-driven type,and the carbon dioxide emission reduction effect of technological progress urgently needs to be accelerated.China should improve its innovate ability to promote economic development,implement carbon emissions systems through provincial control and industrial control to achieve emission reduction targets,and maintain reasonable economic growth to promote technological progress.This paper has important policy implications for China’s economic construction and ecological civilization construction.Firstly,technological progress plays an important role in China’s economic and social development,and China must promote a fundamental change in the mode of economic growth from factor-driven to innovation-driven.Secondly,the emission reduction effect of technological progress is difficult to neutralize the carbon emission caused by economic growth,and the carbon emission system must be implemented to achieve the emission reduction target.Finally,economic growth is a powerful guarantee for technological progress.It should maintain a moderate and reasonable growth of the national economy,and guide industrial enterprises to continuously improve the level of technological innovation with industrial policies.