“双碳”目标下产业结构优化对区域绿色发展的影响研究

The Impact of Industrial Structure Optimization on Green Development Under the Constraint of Carbon Peak and Neutrality Goals

“双碳”目标为区域经济绿色发展增加了新的约束条件。为此,将碳排放数据纳入绿色发展分析模型,基于2004—2019年中国省级面板数据,运用空间杜宾模型,实证研究在“双碳”目标约束下的产业结构优化对绿色发展(绿色全要素生产率)的影响及其内在机制。研究发现,党的十八大以来,中国各区域在绿色发展上取得了显著成效。研究结果证实,产业结构优化显著促进绿色全要素生产率的提高,但产业结构高级化的作用显著强于产业结构合理化的作用,对技术进步的推动作用要显著强于对技术效率的影响。建议从加强区域协调、产业协同和科技创新等方面促进产业结构升级,以此帮助区域谋求绿色发展,助力实现“双碳”目标。

The"double carbon"target adds new constraints to the green development of regional economy.Under this constraint,it is an important issue to explore the path of highquality economic development and study the relationship between industrial structure optimization and green development.Green total factor productivity(GTFP)is an important index to measure regional green development.Through theoretical analysis,it found that there are three mechanisms to improve GTFP,i.e.promoting industrial technological progress through the upgrading of industrial structure,promoting the improvement of industrial resource utilization efficiency through the rationalization of industrial structure,and realizing the interregional green economic linkage development through spatial spillover effect.Therefore,this study incorporated carbon emission data into the green development analysis framework,established a spatial Dubin model based on China’s provincial panel data from 2004 to 2019,and empirically studied the impact and internal mechanism of industrial structure optimization on GTFP under the constraint.Through the measurement of GTFP,the result shows that it fluctuated sharply during the observation period,showing a development trend of decreasing first and then increasing,and showing obvious spatial spillover effect.The turning point of the development trend change in 2013,which reflecting the achievements of China’s efforts in ecological civilization construction and green development since the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China.The empirical results show that both the upgrading of industrial structure and the rationalization of industrial structure can significantly promote GTFP,but the former has a stronger effect than the latter.Whether the industrial structure is rationalized or advanced,the spatial spillover effect is stronger and more effective than the direct effect.The impact of industrial structure optimization on GTFP can be reflected in both technological progress and technical efficiency improvement,but the effect on technological progress is stronger.According to the research results,there are three countermeasures put forward.First,it needs to take the"double carbon"goal as the direction of progress and promote coordinated development among regions.Second,it should take the"double carbon"goal as the starting point,and constantly optimize the industrial structure.Third,it would take the"double carbon"goal as our focus and promote the continuous development of technological innovation.It is hoped that these countermeasures would be helpfulness to the regions to pursue the green development and achieve the"double carbon"goal.The contribution of this study is mainly reflected in two aspects.Firstly,it decomposed the industrial structure optimization into industrial structure upgrading and industrial structure rationalization,meanwhile,GTFP is decomposed into technological progress and technical efficiency,and the influence mechanism of different industrial structure optimization modes on GTFP is deeply investigated.Secondly,the spatial Dubin model is constructed to explore the spillover effect of industrial structure optimization on GTFP in the surrounding areas.Therefore,it can be achieved the more accurate measurement of the relationship between industrial structure optimization and GTFP,and the theory,model and method had been made improved.