昆明市土地混合度预测与土地混合利用演变相关性分析

The correlation between the prediction of land mixing degree and the evolution of land mixed use in Kunming

基于昆明市2000-2020年土地利用数据,采用Mixed-Cell-CA模型对昆明市2030年的土地混合利用情况进行预测,结果的Kappa指数达0.87,可靠性高;根据预测结果分析昆明市土地混合利用的动态演变程度与土地混合程度的关系.结果表明,土地混合程度与土地利用演变程度之间相互影响, 2000-2030年昆明市土地混合程度不断提升,土地混合利用演变程度逐年减缓,受土地混合利用演变程度减缓的影响,土地混合度增速逐渐放缓;低混合度土地单元内部的土地利用类型单一,结构不稳定,在演化中容易发生极端变化,高混合度土地单元由于其功能多样、结构复杂,在演化中土地利用类型更易变化,演化过程更加合理;土地混合利用演变程度与土地混合程度呈显著的正向弱相关性, 2000-2010、2010-2020、2020-2030年3期的相关性指数分别为0.121、0.255、0.316,呈递增趋势.

Studying the prediction and evolution of mixed use of land is an important way to improve the vitality of economic development and the intensity of land use. Based on the land use data of Kunming in2000, 2010 and 2020, we used the Mixed-Cell-CA model to predict the mixed use of land in Kunming in2030. The Kappa index of the prediction result was 0.87, and the result was highly reliable, according to which the relationship between the dynamic evolution degree of land mixed use and the degree of land mixing in Kunming was analyzed. The results showed that the degree of land mixing and the degree of land use evolution would influence each other. From 2000 to 2030, the degree of land mixing in Kunming City would continue to increase, and the degree of land mixing slowed down year by year. Affected by the slowdown of the degree of land mixing, the land mixing rate of the increase in the degree of land use would gradually slow down;the land use type inside the low-mixed land was of a single nature, and the structure was unstable. It was prone to extreme changes during the evolution. The high-mixed land unit was more likely to have different land use types in the evolution due to its diverse functions and complex structure. Changes in the evolution process would be more reasonable;the evolution degree of land mix use and the degree of land mix showed a significantly positively weak correlation. The correlation indexes of the 2000-2010, 2010-2020, 2020-2030 three phases were 0.121, 0.255, and 0.316 respectively, showing an increasing trend.